NL Cy Young....who ya got?

[El Mudo]

Basically, I feel it comes down to Lincecum, Haren, and Carpenter.

I lean towards Haren. He's got a lower VORP than Lincecum, but its not much lower (and is still higher than Carpenter's).

What pushes Haren over the top for me (besides the 163 ERA + and the ungodly .93 WHIP) is the 12.9 WARP3, which is the highest in all of baseball (ahead of the guy who will win MVP easily, Albert Pujols).

[lleeder]

Oliver Perez

[EddieMoscone]

Mudo, I know you base most of your stuff on the "real" statistics (I usually do to), but I can't help but go for Carpenter due to the sentimental/comeback factor (nevemind the fact that he is having a fantastic year).

[IMSlacker]

According to the Cy Young Predictor (http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung), it's Adam Wainwright.

[El Mudo]

Mudo, I know you base most of your stuff on the "real" statistics (I usually do to), but I can't help but go for Carpenter due to the sentimental/comeback factor (nevemind the fact that he is having a fantastic year).

Carpenter's been great, but what hurts his case in my eyes is that he's only thrown 150 innings (on account of being injured). Lincecum's thrown close to 200 (193) and Haren's thrown 188. Hell...Wainright's thrown 193 and faced over 800 batters.

I think in a race this close, the fact that the other pitchers have been more durable while STILL putting up great numbers has to factor in somehow.

[Suspect Chin]

Spy Report: Tim Lincecum wins 2nd Cy Young Award. I love seeing the Cardinals fail.

[TheGameHHH]

what shocks me the most out of all this is Lincecum has a FGBWHA - eWISNS-[+= of 63.4 while Carpenter has a UINWHATXn % 7THABSL"L"-Q of 9. I just dont see how you can cast your vote for Lincecum and still feel like a man.

[Suspect Chin]

what shocks me the most out of all this is Lincecum has a FGBWHA - eWISNS-[+= of 63.4 while Carpenter has a UINWHATXn % 7THABSL"L"-Q of 9. I just dont see how you can cast your vote for Lincecum and still feel like a man.

We'll need Mojo to tell us what those acronyms mean.

[TheGameHHH]

We'll need Mojo to tell us what those acronyms mean.

if you cant read that for yourself then i dont know what to tell you, clearly you arent a baseball fan. a real fan knows exactly what those stats mean

[ozzie]

http://www.americanpress.com/lc/blogs/wpDubois/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/dazed-and-confused.jpeg

Congrats Mitch!

[Dude!]

the smart money is on Obama

[underdog]

what shocks me the most out of all this is Lincecum has a FGBWHA - eWISNS-[+= of 63.4 while Carpenter has a UINWHATXn % 7THABSL"L"-Q of 9. I just dont see how you can cast your vote for Lincecum and still feel like a man.

THE ONLY IMPORTANT THING IS WINS. NO OTHER STATS MATTER WHEN IT COMES TO PITCHERS.

Just like RBIs and hustle are the only stats that matter for hitters.

[Suspect Chin]

THE ONLY IMPORTANT THING IS WINS. NO OTHER STATS MATTER WHEN IT COMES TO PITCHERS.

Just like RBIs and hustle are the only stats that matter for hitters.

What?! Are you trying Fez's gimmick of outrageous opinions? How can you say K's, ERA, etc. are unimportant? The guy could have 20 K's a game, but if his offense doesn't produce, he'll end up with very few wins.

[underdog]

What?! Are you trying Fez's gimmick of outrageous opinions? How can you say K's, ERA, etc. are unimportant? The guy could have 20 K's a game, but if his offense doesn't produce, he'll end up with very few wins.

I was making fun of people who don't like "new" stats.

Someone argued on this board once that wins were the most important measure of a pitcher.

[Suspect Chin]

I was making fun of people who don't like "new" stats.

Someone argued on this board once that wins were the most important measure of a pitcher.

Whew...Sorry, you had me scared.

[IMSlacker]

Just like RBIs and hustle are the only stats that matter for hitters.

You forgot grittiness. Grittiness is super important.

[TheMojoPin]

What?! Are you trying Fez's gimmick of outrageous opinions? How can you say K's, ERA, etc. are unimportant? The guy could have 20 K's a game, but if his offense doesn't produce, he'll end up with very few wins.

ERA is relatively unimportant.

[Tall_James]

ERA is relatively unimportant.

No kidding. Back into the kitchen and make me some bacon & eggs dammit!

[foodcourtdruide]

I judge pitchers solely on wild pitches

[Suspect Chin]

ERA is relatively unimportant.

Compared to what?

[epo]

Compared to what?

I think WHIP is far more important than ERA.

[Marc with a c]

I think WHIP is far more important than ERA.

so does dave bush.

[epo]

so does dave bush.

Don't make me cry.

[TheGameHHH]

Compared to what?

ERA+/3.14

[TheMojoPin]

ERA+/3.14

Those stats sure make you angry, don't they?

[TheGameHHH]

Those stats sure make you angry, don't they?

not in the slighest, i enjoy them and i enjoy learning about them. the funny thing that people fail to realize is that you can literally say ANYTHING you want through stats.

[TheMojoPin]

Compared to what?

WHIP, ERA+, SO/BB (Game's head just exploded).

ERA definitely has value in judging a player, but like pitching wins and losses (and batting average and RBI's for hitters) it's overemphasized when there are far more accurate metrics to determine the quality of a player's performance.

[TheMojoPin]

not in the slighest, i enjoy them and i enjoy learning about them. the funny thing that people fail to realize is that you can literally say ANYTHING you want through stats.

Explain how.

Let's say I want to argue that Neifi Perez is not an awful baseball player. How do I use stats to "say" that?

[Marc with a c]

why the neifi hate? he hit .371/400/548 in 2004 with the cubs.

[TheGameHHH]

Explain how.

Let's say I want to argue that Neifi Perez is not an awful baseball player. How do I use stats to "say" that?

here's one i can think of off the top of my head. last offseason Oliver Perez's agent (who may or may not be Boras, i have no idea) went to the Mets with stats to show them how Perez was a comparable pitcher to Johan Santana. I'm not 100% certain what stats he used, you can check mlbtraderumors archive to find it, they should have the story. Now, we all know that Perez is not as good as Santana, yet the Mets pretty much bought it (granted, theyre the Mets). through stats an agent was able to show how an inconsistant pitcher was comparable to a very consistant one.

[TheGameHHH]

why the neifi hate? he hit .371/400/548 in 2004 with the cubs.

with an OPS+ of 140

[TheMojoPin]

why the neifi hate? he hit .371/400/548 in 2004 with the cubs.

Sure, in a year where he put up:

.255 .296 .336 .632.

[Marc with a c]

Sure, in a year where he put up:

.255 .296 .336 .632.

now you're just nitpicking.

[TheMojoPin]

here's one i can think of off the top of my head. last offseason Oliver Perez's agent (who may or may not be Boras, i have no idea) went to the Mets with stats to show them how Perez was a comparable pitcher to Johan Santana. I'm not 100% certain what stats he used, you can check mlbtraderumors archive to find it, they should have the story. Now, we all know that Perez is not as good as Santana, yet the Mets pretty much bought it (granted, theyre the Mets). through stats an agent was able to show how an inconsistant pitcher was comparable to a very consistant one.

That seems to be an argument that the Mets are run by idiots since anyone with a functioning brain can take 5 minutes to check out the two players and see that such an argument is absurd. Unless someone can show how this crafty agent somehow presented the stats of two very different pitchers to dupe a professional baseball organization into thinking Perez was similar to Santana. I'm calling BS on this rumor.

[joeyballsack]

I don't know about all the numbers, but I am kind of amused by the fact that now we have high profile athletes winning some of their sports most prestigious awards in baseball and swimming while being confirmed pot smokers.

[Suspect Chin]

The two Cardinal homos really screwed each other in the voting:



<table class="story-table" border="0"><tbody><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>The voting:


<table class="story-table" border="0"> <tbody><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Pitcher</td><td> team</td><td> 1</td><td> 2</td><td> 3</td><td> total</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Tim Lincecum</td><td> Giants</td><td> 11</td><td> 12</td><td> 9</td><td> 100</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Chris Carpenter</td><td> Cardinals</td><td> 9</td><td> 14</td><td> 7</td><td> 94</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Adam Wainwright</td><td> Cardinals</td><td> 12</td><td> 5</td><td> 15</td><td> 90</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Javier Vazquez</td><td> Braves</td><td> 0</td><td> 1</td><td> 0</td><td> 3</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Dan Haren</td><td> D-backs</td><td> 0</td><td> 0</td><td> 1</td><td> 1</td></tr> </tbody></table> The voting panel consists of two BBWAA members from each of the 16 chapters in National League cities. Players receive five points for a first-place vote, three for a second-place vote and one for a third-place vote. Balloting is conducted before postseason play.</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Suspect Chin]

I think WHIP is far more important than ERA.

Young brother running by the name of Timmy Lincecum agrees (http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1581832.html) with you.

[El Mudo]

That seems to be an argument that the Mets are run by idiots since anyone with a functioning brain can take 5 minutes to check out the two players and see that such an argument is absurd. Unless someone can show how this crafty agent somehow presented the stats of two very different pitchers to dupe a professional baseball organization into thinking Perez was similar to Santana. I'm calling BS on this rumor.

I honestly have no idea how anyone could confuse Oliver Perez of the sparkling 100 ERA + and 1.42 WHIP that year with Johan Santana 166 ERA+ and 1.14 WHIP. Perez was the very definition of average that year...Santana was literally 66 percent better than he was. And, as Mojo pointed out, it took me less than 5 minutes to look that up.

No one, not even the Mets, could be that incompetent. I refuse to believe it.

The two Cardinal homos really screwed each other in the voting:



<table class="story-table" border="0"><tbody><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>The voting:


<table class="story-table" border="0"> <tbody><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Pitcher</td><td> team</td><td> 1</td><td> 2</td><td> 3</td><td> total</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Tim Lincecum</td><td> Giants</td><td> 11</td><td> 12</td><td> 9</td><td> 100</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Chris Carpenter</td><td> Cardinals</td><td> 9</td><td> 14</td><td> 7</td><td> 94</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Adam Wainwright</td><td> Cardinals</td><td> 12</td><td> 5</td><td> 15</td><td> 90</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Javier Vazquez</td><td> Braves</td><td> 0</td><td> 1</td><td> 0</td><td> 3</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>Dan Haren</td><td> D-backs</td><td> 0</td><td> 0</td><td> 1</td><td> 1</td></tr> </tbody></table> The voting panel consists of two BBWAA members from each of the 16 chapters in National League cities. Players receive five points for a first-place vote, three for a second-place vote and one for a third-place vote. Balloting is conducted before postseason play.</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>


Will Carroll and Keith Law left Carpenter completely off their ballots.

Two voters, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.com, did not include Chris Carpenter on their ballots. Carroll had Wainwright in the top spot, Tim Lincecum second and Arizona's Dan Haren third. Law voted for Lincecum, Atlanta's Javier Vazquez and Wainwright in third. Those were the only votes in any position for Haren and Vazquez.

The six-point gap between Lincecum and Carpenter is tied for the third-closest in the NL since the ballot expanded to three pitchers in 1970. The 10-point margin from first to third is the second closest for the NL ballot.

[El Mudo]

with an OPS+ of 140

In 67 PAs....in a grand total of 23 games.

The next year in 609 PA's for the Cubs he put up an OPS of .383, and an OPS+ of 75, making him roughly 25% WORSE than the average batter (not to mention the astoundingly absurd .234 EqA). He also walked a grand total of 18 times that year.

Neifi Perez sucks.

[El Mudo]

*sigh*....Stuff like this makes me miss Fire Joe Morgan (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/3BAC56E8B2FF88D386257673006D2443?OpenDocument)



Personally, I was in the Wainwright camp. He went the distance for the Cardinals last season. He was their horse. He shouldered large pitch counts and worked deep into games.

He won three games in April, two in May, three in June, four in July, four in August and three in September.

He pitched more innings than any pitcher in the league. That is a huge statistic, since it represents physical sacrifice made for the sake of the team.

Wainwright won the most games in the NL, 19. Winning games is the whole point of playing, so that statistic should carry great weight.

I'm no Cubs fan, but i'm REALLY starting hate the Cardinals, much in the same way I hate the Red Wings.

[underdog]

I don't know about all the numbers, but I am kind of amused by the fact that now we have high profile athletes winning some of their sports most prestigious awards in baseball and swimming while being confirmed pot smokers.

The general public just doesn't care about people smoking pot.

[Suspect Chin]

Will Carroll and Keith Law left Carpenter completely off their ballots.

Yeah local sports radio here is pretty well up in arms against these two heroes.

[Earlshog]

Yeah local sports radio here is pretty well up in arms against these two heroes.

did the writters give a reason for Choosing Haren and Vazquez over Carpenter?

[Marc with a c]

did the writters give a reason for Choosing Haren and Vazquez over Carpenter?

law said he left carpenter off because he didn't pitch a full year.

[Earlshog]

law said he left carpenter off because he didn't pitch a full year.

that is retarded... this guy is notorious for these outlandish votes / comments ... take away his vote

[Marc with a c]

that is retarded... this guy is notorious for these outlandish votes / comments ... take away his vote

ok.

[El Mudo]

that is retarded... this guy is notorious for these outlandish votes / comments ... take away his vote

Seems like his logic is pretty sound to me:



David (New York) Hey Keith. Can you really justify putting Javier Vasquez on the Cy Young ballot over Chris Carpenter because of 30 innings?


Klaw (1:04 PM)No, because that's not the logic. It's the effect those extra innings pitched had on the overall value Vazquez provided to Atlanta versus what Carpenter provided to St. Louis.