What active hitter has the best shot at 500 home runs ??

[cougarjake13]

in the spirit of the active pitcher- 300 wins thread


not long ago the 500 mark seem to be devalued and it was thought maybe the 600 mark would be the new plateau

so which hitter has the best shot ?? sheffield has 499 and delagdo has 467 so they will obviously most likely get it but after them ??


obvious money is vlad and pujols , now theres several active players in between the ones i listed but did not include due to age and current home run total but if you think i omitted someone please include him in the discussion


Chipper Jones (36) 408 if he stays healthy should get it
Vladimir Guerrero (32) 392
Albert Pujols (28) 319
David Ortiz (32) 289 plays dh/good sawx team but will he stay healthy to play 6 more yrs to get it
Magglio Ordonez (34) 268 prob too old
Carlos Beltran (31) 263 same boat as ortiz
Derrek Lee (32) 258 if he keeps current pace should get there
Pat Burrell (31) 251 see d lee
Aramis Ramirez (30) 249 needs to avg 25/yr for next ten i say he gets there
Mark Teixeira (28) 203 needs to avg 30 hrs over ten i say injury later on prevents him
Ryan Howard (28) 177 of the younger guys on list i say lock
Vernon Wells (29) 177 injuries have hurt him i say no
David Wright (25) 130 25 hr/yr avg over next 15 gets him to 500
Prince Fielder (24) 114 maybe too young to say
Grady Sizemore (25) 111 maybe too young to say

[instrument]

Made me realize how long its been since I followed baseball.

Imagine if sheffield hadn't floundered as bad his early years, he was pretty mediocre for quite some time.

[razorboy]

Evan Longoria.

[cougarjake13]

Evan Longoria.

too early for that

[razorboy]

too early for that

It's never too early.

[Freakshow]

pujols might get 700 before he is done.

[cougarjake13]

It's never too early.




darryl strawberry

[hammersavage]

Every player will get 500 home runs. ALL!!!

[cougarjake13]

Every player will get 500 home runs. ALL!!!

before last year it was looking that way

[K.C.]

Chipper Jones (36) 408 YES
Vladimir Guerrero (32) 392 MAYBE (he's starting to break down)
Albert Pujols (28) 319 YES
David Ortiz (32) 289 NO
Magglio Ordonez (34) 268 NO
Carlos Beltran (31) 263 NO
Derrek Lee (32) 258 NO
Pat Burrell (31) 251 NO
Aramis Ramirez (30) 249 MAYBE
Mark Teixeira (28) 203 YES
Ryan Howard (28) 177 YES
Vernon Wells (29) 177 NO
David Wright (25) 130 YES
Prince Fielder (24) 114 NO
Grady Sizemore (25) 111 NO


On Vlad, I think he's heading towards the edge of the cliff, and when he falls, it's going to be dramatic.

The kind of nagging back and leg injuries he's chronically playing with tend to stop guys dead in their tracks when they take over.

On Aramis, he'll eventually move from 3B to 1B to DH as he gets older. He has a shot to just crack it.

[razorboy]

darryl strawberry

Never compare the future greatest player of all time to the Straw.

[cougarjake13]

Never compare the future greatest player of all time to the Straw.

ok

lets watch out and hope he's not the next gregg jefferies

[razorboy]

ok

lets watch out and hope he's not the next gregg jefferies

Oh, come on. That's just absurd.

[goreds2]

not long ago the 500 mark seem to be devalued and it was thought maybe the 600 mark would be the new plateau

obvious money is vlad and pujols , now theres several active players in between the ones i listed but did not include due to age and current home run total but if you think i omitted someone please include him in the discussion



Adam Dunn is 29 years old and has 278 homeruns. He strikes out and walks a lot as 500 is probably a for sure but 600 I am not so sure.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

[cougarjake13]

Oh, come on. That's just absurd.

wasnt for jefferies at the time

[SuperKarateMonkeyDeathFez]

Adam Dunn is 29 years old and has 278 homeruns. He strikes out and walks a lot as 500 is probably a for sure but 600 I am not so sure.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

Dunn's HR rate for how long he's played and his age is insane. He'll easily hit it. So will ARod and Pujols.