What active pitcher has the best shot at 300?

[K.C.]

...excluding Randy Johnson, who is at 295 and should get it if he pitches this year.

I calculated the averages to the age of 42 for every pitcher except Moyer (who I went to 50).

Obviously, you have to make up your mind whether you think a guy could pitch effectively to that age.


You have:

1) Jamie Moyer, 45 - 246 Wins (Needs an average of 13.4 wins per season over the next four seasons)

2) Andy Pettitte, 36 - 216 Wins (Needs an average of 14 wins per season over the next six years)

3) Tim Hudson, 32 - 146 Wins (Needs an average of 15.4 wins per season over the next 10 years - will miss most of 2009 due to Tommy John Surgery).

4) Roy Halladay, 31 - 131 Wins (Needs an average of 15.4 wins per season over the next 11 seasons)

5) Roy Oswalt, 30 - 129 Wins (Needs an average of 14.25 wins per season over the next 12 seasons)

6) Mark Buerhle, 29 - 122 Wins (Needs an average of 13.7 wins per season over the next 13 seasons)

7) C.C. Sabathia, 27 - 117 Wins (Needs an average of 12.2 wins per season over the next 15 seasons)

8) Johan Santana, 29 - 109 Wins (Needs an average of 14.6 wins per season over the next 13 seasons)



Those only guys you can realistically say have a shot.

My take:
-Moyer - it's hard to believe he can keep it up, but who knows
-Pettitte - going to retire early
-Hudson - Tommy John surgery likely derails his bid.
-Halladay - He'd be my pick at the next to 300.
-Oswalt - Too injury prone. Will break down.
-Buerhle - Doesn't have the kind of stuff to consistently win if he's on a bad team. Win total is partially a product of being on good White Sox teams.
-Sabathia - Statistically, he's got the best shot, but will his body hold up to the age of 42?? And if not can he average 16-17 wins per season over an extended period to compensate?
-Santana - A little behind the pace right now. Should win more games on average with the Mets, but he's going to probably need a couple 20 win seasons to position himself for his latter years.

[torker]

I need a hobby.

[K.C.]

I need a hobby.

SILENCE!

[PerryWinkle]

i just think its too tough for any of them. CC will probably break down in his mid to late 30's; Johan maybe, if he stays healthy and the mets get a bullpen. Halladay has the stuff and a shot, a long one though

[sailor]

cc depending on where he signs.

[IMSlacker]

I agree with sailor. If Sabathia pitches for the Yankees or Red Sox for the next 10 years, he'll pile up the wins.

[Knowledged_one]

What about tim wakefield knuckleballers can pitch forever

[Don Stugots]

Maddux is out, he just retired.


K1 had a great pick. he can pitch till he is dead.

[razorboy]

I agree with sailor. If Sabathia pitches for the Yankees or Red Sox for the next 10 years, he'll pile up the wins.

What? Sabathia has never been able to pick up a twenty win season pitching in the AL central, and now all of the sudden he's just going to "pile up the wins" pitching in the east?

[IMSlacker]

What? Sabathia has never been able to pick up a twenty win season pitching in the AL central, and now all of the sudden he's just going to "pile up the wins" pitching in the east?

He doesn't need 20 win seasons. 15 to 17 win seasons will do.

[razorboy]

He doesn't need 20 win seasons. 15 to 17 win seasons will do.

He'd have to pitch at that level every single season until he was forty, and I have serious doubts that fatty is going to pitch until he is forty, much less to the tune of fifteen to seventeen wins every season.

[sailor]

He doesn't need 20 win seasons. 15 to 17 win seasons will do.

heck, you saw down the stretch this year what he is capable of on a contending team.

he's also a year of wins behind halladay and 4 years younger.

[KnoxHarrington]

I think that we're going to have to reconsider the win threshold to be considered an immortal. We might not see another 300 game winner, and given the nature of starting pitching now, 250 might be a more reasonable target.

Cy Young's all time wins record is probably the most unbreakable record in all sports, just because the game has changed so much it just can't be broken.

[OGC]

We will never see another 300 game winner in baseball. Pitchers don't get enough starts to make 15 - 20 wins per season a consistent reality.

A pitchers starting his career now would have to average 20 wins for 15 years or 15 wins for 20 years. With the money they are making now, there is no reason to stick around for 15 to 20 seasons.

[cougarjake13]

Maddux is out, he just retired.


K1 had a great pick. he can pitch till he is dead.



maddux already has over 350 wins

[cougarjake13]

I think that we're going to have to reconsider the win threshold to be considered an immortal. We might not see another 300 game winner, and given the nature of starting pitching now, 250 might be a more reasonable target.

Cy Young's all time wins record is probably the most unbreakable record in all sports, just because the game has changed so much it just can't be broken.



yeh it'd be almost impossible

either 25 wins avg for 20 seasons or 20 wins for 25 years

since thats almost unattainable it would take 15 wins avg for 33 yrs

[cougarjake13]

my guesses in order would be



1. halladay
2a. santana
2b. sabathia



sabathia moves up the list if he signs with the sox or yanks

[Holes]

I think that we're going to have to reconsider the win threshold to be considered an immortal. We might not see another 300 game winner, and given the nature of starting pitching now, 250 might be a more reasonable target.

Cy Young's all time wins record is probably the most unbreakable record in all sports, just because the game has changed so much it just can't be broken.

Probably? Forget about his win total ever being broken, his loss total will never be broken either. He has more losses than most pitchers have wins!

511-316

[cougarjake13]

Probably? Forget about his win total ever being broken, his loss total will never be broken either. He has more losses than most pitchers have wins!

511-316

maddux was close but he just retired

active loss leaders

Rank Player (age) Losses Throws

1. Greg Maddux (42) 227 R
2. Tom Glavine* (42) 203 L
3. Jamie Moyer* (45) 185 L
4. Randy Johnson* (44) 160 L
5. Steve Trachsel (37) 159 R
6. Tim Wakefield (41) 157 R
7. Kenny Rogers* (43) 156 L
8. Mike Mussina (39) 153 R
9. John Smoltz (41) 147 R
10. Curt Schilling (41) 146 R

[FezsAssistant]

I don't think anyone will.

[Knowledged_one]

maddux already has over 350 wins

he was also referring to my pick of wakefield

[cougarjake13]

he was also referring to my pick of wakefield

yeh but he also said maddux is out he just retired and i was pointing out he already surpassed it

[EddieMoscone]

Got to be Sabathia. Even if he starts to break down at 35, that's 8 years from now. He can have another 150 wins by then. 4 more years as a .500 pitcher after that will get him close.

Santana has a shot too, since his best pitch is his change-up.

Not saying either will make it, but it would not be impossible.

[FezsAssistant]

I've got to go with Pavano here. His arm MUST be pretty damn fresh.

[NickyL0885]

Isn't Randy Johnson like 6 away from 300?



Nvm.....didn't see K.C's part at the top. carry on......

[Don Stugots]

yeh but he also said maddux is out he just retired and i was pointing out he already surpassed it

i didnt know how many wins Maddux had. i seen the headline on espn.com and went with it. I do think a knuckle ball pitcher can do it since they can pitch longer. I dont think we will see too many 300 win pitchers. As a kid pitchers would go on 3 or 4 days rest. Now there are 5 man rotations, a guy can go almost a week in between starts.

Another pitching record that will never be broke is most complete games.

[donnie_darko]

where's tod van popple on his list, his rookie card cost me like 2 bucks!

[TheGameHHH]

if i was a betting man and gambling was legal, id lay my money down on Johan with Halladay as a close second. CC is way too fat so his body is going to break down.

[Don Stugots]

if i was a betting man and gambling was legal, id lay my money down on Johan with Halladay as a close second. CC is way too fat so his body is going to break down.

i wonder how many more wins Wells would have had or longer career had he taken better care of himself.

[TheGameHHH]

i wonder how many more wins Wells would have had or longer career had he taken better care of himself.

I was gonna make a Wells/Sabathia comparison but really they're only similar in body type. Sabathia's stuff is much more filthy.

Truthfully, had Boomer taken better care of himself I think he would have has roughly 35+ more wins to his name simply based on longevity.

[K.C.]

Hudson was really the guy that was on pace for a while, but losing last year and most of this year pretty much kills him.

Before hand, though, he had set a great pace.

Another guy that would start to enter the conversation if he could post 30 wins or so over the next two seasons is Carlos Zambrano. That'd put him right around where Mark Buerhle is, at the age of 29, in a couple years.

[epo]

Hudson was really the guy that was on pace for a while, but losing last year and most of this year pretty much kills him.

Before hand, though, he had set a great pace.

Another guy that would start to enter the conversation if he could post 30 wins or so over the next two seasons is Carlos Zambrano. That'd put him right around where Mark Buerhle is, at the age of 29, in a couple years.

CC is on a pace, but I understand your point completely.

And Buehrle is a big fat no.

[A.J.]

What about tim wakefield knuckleballers can pitch forever

It makes me sad to think of how many more wins he could have had if he had gotten some fucking run support. He should have had at least 3 20-win seasons that I can think of.

[El Mudo]

Does 300 wins really matter?

Wins are hands down the DUMBEST measure of how good a pitcher is

[EddieMoscone]

Does 300 wins really matter?

Wins are hands down the DUMBEST measure of how good a pitcher is

I know there are a million different stats to measure pitchers now, but for me, wins are the measure of consistency. WHIP, ERA, etc. can fluxuate based on a few extreme performances. But if a pitcher wins consistently, it generally means you can count on them giving you pretty much the same thing each game.

[PD]

I agree with Sailor;
CC if he goes to a team like Sox/Yankees who expect to be contenders every year.

No one else on the list is likely, unless circumstances change (like Halladay leaving the Jays)

[El Mudo]

I know there are a million different stats to measure pitchers now, but for me, wins are the measure of consistency. WHIP, ERA, etc. can fluxuate based on a few extreme performances. But if a pitcher wins consistently, it generally means you can count on them giving you pretty much the same thing each game.

No it doesnt. If I give up 12 runs, but my team puts up 13, does that make me a good pitcher? Absolutely not. Wins as a statistic don't show "consistency" because there are too many variables that determine it outside of just pitching, like the hypothetical situation above. You can eliminate the "extreme performances" angle with WHIP etc. by looking at things like sample size, or ERA +, or VORP, all of which are better ways to determine a pitcher's ability than something completely arbitrary like "wins". Its why stats like batting average and RBIs are also dumb for determining a hitter's worth

For example, let's look at Pedro. In 2000 he went 18-6, which seems kind of pedestrian, but the man's ERA + was 291+ (meaning he was roughly 191% better than the average pitcher), and his WHIP was .73, which is amazing. I know its not really a good idea to use Clemens, but in 2005 he was 13-8, but his ERA + was 226 and he had a 1.08 WHIP. Its not HIS fault he got some of the worst run support in the history of run support and that the Astros offence dissapeared when he pitched. The point is, it didnt make him any less of a great pitcher that he only won 13 games that year.

Its almost related to the same principle that people used to discount Jose Alberto Pujols MVP candidacy because his team didn't make the playoffs