Feb 9th-12th: WA, VA, MD, DC and more primaries

[K.C.]

For the Dems:

February 9th
Washington
Louisiana
Nebraska

February 10th
Maine

February 12th
Virginia
Maryland
D.C.

Polls released today showed that Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by at least 15% in Virginia. These are mostly Obama-friendly states. He's expected to do well in Washington and Louisiana, as well as the beltway primaries.

If Hillary is going to pull out some Ws here, her best shots are Nebraska, and Maine (which
she probably does have an advantage in.)

But her campaign seems focused on the early March primaries of Texas and Ohio where's she's expecting to make a big stand on the back of working class voters, and Latinos.



So my guess is Obama needs to pull out some healthy margins in these upcoming states or he's in trouble.

[epo]

Yes and no. He needs victories, but even more so he needs to keep the "media momentum", then accumulate delegates & cash to beat her at her own game.

[K.C.]

Huckabee won the Kansas caucus on the Republican side today with 60% of the vote, and all the delegates.


McCain should be able to lock this thing up, but it may be a while before he actually does it.

There's still a lot of states left Huckabee will do well in:
-Maryland
-Virginia
-Wisconsin
-Ohio
-Texas
-Mississippi
-Indiana
-North Carolina
-Nebraska
-Kentucky
-Idaho
-South Carolina

If he surprises McCain in Louisiana and/or Washington tonight and can pick off those two beltway states, he could be a thorn in McCain's side the rest of the way.

Make no mistake about it, though...it would be very difficult for Huckabee to get to the nomination, and almost mathematically impossible if Romney is able to swing his delegates McCain's way which seems to be the indication at this point.

[TheMojoPin]

Huckabee wins Kansas with 60% of the vote.

Obama so far is trouncing Hillary in Washington state.

[TheMojoPin]

Huckabee on CNN talking about his win, namedropping Chuck Norris and Colbert. The air hockey table has called Texas for him!

[epo]

Obama is also projected as the winner in Nebraska with nearly a 2 to 1 margin.

[TheMojoPin]

Obama is projected to take Nebraska with almost 65% of the vote so far.

[epo]

Obama is projected to take Nebraska with almost 65% of the vote so far.

Copycat.

[DiabloSammich]

They are projecting Obama to take Nebraska with close to 65% of the vote accounted for.

[epo]

They are projecting Obama to take Nebraska with close to 65% of the vote accounted for.

Sigh

[Fezticle98]

Huckabee won the Kansas caucus on the Republican side today with 60% of the vote, and all the delegates.


McCain should be able to lock this thing up, but it may be a while before he actually does it.

There's still a lot of states left Huckabee will do well in:
-Maryland
-Virginia
-Wisconsin
-Ohio
-Texas
-Mississippi
-Indiana
-North Carolina
-Nebraska
-Kentucky
-Idaho
-South Carolina

If he surprises McCain in Louisiana and/or Washington tonight and can pick off those two beltway states, he could be a thorn in McCain's side the rest of the way.

Make no mistake about it, though...it would be very difficult for Huckabee to get to the nomination, and almost mathematically impossible if Romney is able to swing his delegates McCain's way which seems to be the indication at this point.

Huckabee has no chance. He will not do well in Maryland, Wisconsin or Ohio. South Carolina has already taken place. He will lose big in Washington state, lose big in Maryland, and probably lose in Virginia.

McCain has a virtual lock. He's just waiting for enough delegates to be decided for it to be a mathematical certainty. Barely over half of the delegates have been aportioned, so it's not surprising that he hasn't clinched yet.

I think Obama will sweep this weekend and Tuesday, with the exception of Maine.

[K.C.]

Huckabee has no chance. He will not do well in Maryland, Wisconsin or Ohio. South Carolina has already taken place. He will lose big in Washington state, lose big in Maryland, and probably lose in Virginia.

McCain has a virtual lock. He's just waiting for enough delegates to be decided for it to be a mathematical certainty. Barely over half of the delegates have been aportioned, so it's not surprising that he hasn't clinched yet.

I think Obama will sweep this weekend and Tuesday, with the exception of Maine.

You misread what I said...I wasn't suggesting he had a shot at the nomination...I was suggesting he could prevent McCain from locking it up for a while.

It's a foregone conclusion McCain will get the delegates, but it might take him a while.

I'll take your word for, since you probably know Virginia better than I do, but the demographics of who make up Republican voters in both VA and MD, namely the Christian Conservative numbers, suggest he has a definite chance to win those states.





As for Obama, everyone expects him to almost sweep his way to Texas and Ohio, save maybe Maine and possibly Virginia. He'll need it to, if Hillary has the strength she appears to in those states.

[TheMojoPin]

As for Obama, everyone expects him to almost sweep his way to Texas and Ohio, save maybe Maine and possibly Virginia. He'll need it to, if Hillary has the strength she appears to in those states.

Hey man, it's all about momentum. If he wins most or even all of these states, that's all we hear for weeks. Combine that with the campaign push his money will buy, that gives him a good push to chip away at her in those states.

[ToLEEdo]

I definitely see Obama and McCain winning Ohio, since we are always a swing state it should be pretty interesting. I don't think Huckabee is going to do well in Ohio at all.

Texas should be interesting though.

[Fezticle98]

You misread what I said...I wasn't suggesting he had a shot at the nomination...I was suggesting he could prevent McCain from locking it up for a while.

It's a foregone conclusion McCain will get the delegates, but it might take him a while.

I'll take your word for, since you probably know Virginia better than I do, but the demographics of who make up Republican voters in both VA and MD, namely the Christian Conservative numbers, suggest he has a definite chance to win those states.


As for Obama, everyone expects him to almost sweep his way to Texas and Ohio, save maybe Maine and possibly Virginia. He'll need it to, if Hillary has the strength she appears to in those states.

Fair enough. Allow me to restate. I don't know how the mathematics of the remaining delegates breaks down, but I feel like McCain is such a lock at this point that Huckabee will have difficulty in proving to be even a serious thorn in McCain's side. Huckabee is on a fool's errand. He may delay the official a few days or weeks, but won't be in any position to extract anything from McCain.

I could be wrong about MD & VA. I'm not going to bet my hair on it, but I think McCain will take them both. VA allows independents to vote in either primary. Most will probably opt to go Democratic because that contest is competitive. Undoubtedly, they will go for Obama, but those who opt for the GOP will go to McCain.

[K.C.]

Hey man, it's all about momentum. If he wins most or even all of these states, that's all we hear for weeks. Combine that with the campaign push his money will buy, that gives him a good push to chip away at her in those states.

To a point, that is true. The problem is that Texas has a very large and influential Latino vote that will go heavily for her unless something dramatic happens between now and then.

And Ohio is a very middle-class, working poor heavy state on the Democratic side.


And what hurts Obama's chances more in those states is that I believe both are closed primaries. He still polls behind Hillary among the Democratic base.


So he'd need some VERY significant momentum to knock her off in one of those states.



They've been making the very important point on CNN tonight that the longer this race stands deadlocked, the more likely it is that the DNC will have to organize legitimate primaries or caucuses in Michigan and Florida to have their votes reflected.

Otherwise, it's a superdelegate selected convention, and that would be a disaster. Either of those scenarios would favor Hillary, I would think.

Which means for Obama to win the nomination, he almost HAS to run the table on most of these February primaries and then knock her out in either Texas or Ohio in March. Otherwise, the thing stays deadlocked, and a deadlock favors Hillary.

[TheMojoPin]

I really don't think he has a shot at all of winning Texas...just whittling down her win and snagging some more delegates. Ohio, however, he could squeak out.

[K.C.]

I really don't think he has a shot at all of winning Texas...just whittling down her win and snagging some more delegates. Ohio, however, he could squeak out.

I agree....Ohio is his best shot for knockout punch.

On the flip side, though, if Hillary can pick up Maine tomorrow, and then one out of Maryland or Virginia, which seems unlikely but IS possible, that would probably put a significant dent in Obama's momentum.

He really needs to be riding a wave into Texas and Ohio because he's playing from behind. If she picks off a couple wins, that could be huge.



Huckabee up in Louisiana....looks like he may carry the day there. Close race in Washington so far. Must be the Colbert bump. That would be a horrendous sign as far as
McCain uniting the base goes. He has to do something to get the rank & file of the party behind him, or else low turnout from the base could kill him in November.

[PhilDeez]

Huckabee up in Louisiana....looks like he may carry the day there. Close race in Washington so far. Must be the Colbert bump. That would be a horrendous sign as far as
McCain uniting the base goes. He has to do something to get the rank & file of the party behind him, or else low turnout from the base could kill him in November.

I agree not too well of a night for McCain. I do believe many supporters stayed at home today with the nomination all but locked up. I think Tuesday will be slightly different with big wins in MD and VA.
I am not buying at all that the base won't support him come November be it Hillary or Obama on the other ticket. There is too much potentially at stake for morons like James Dobson and Pat Robertson to sway there minons to stay at home - Supreme Court and Fed Court nominations, etc. Hannity and the like, aside from Rush, are slowly starting to come around.

[Reephdweller]

What I don't understand is, Obama swept tonight and yet Fox news shows Hillary Clinton with more delegates than him. How is that possible?

[TheMojoPin]

What I don't understand is, Obama swept tonight and yet Fox news shows Hillary Clinton with more delegates than him. How is that possible?

Because she had more delegates going in to tonight, plus she got some delegates out of these states, too.

[scottinnj]

The Super Delegates had better pay attention to the movement that is happening in the party. I just can't see the Democratic party playing tricks with delegates with a race so tight. They've been courting the youth vote for years, and now that they have it, they had better pay attention to it because if they fuck with the delegate count at the convention, these kids will stay at home come November and McCain will be the President.

[Reephdweller]

Because she had more delegates going in to tonight, plus she got some delegates out of these states, too.

Ah.

[epo]

The latest estimate of delegates for the democrats is as follows:

Clinton, 901 popular vote delegates, 211 super delegates = 1112 total delegates
Obama, 959 popular vote delegates, 137 super delegates = 1096 total delegates.

I'll state this again: No manner the candidate, if the popular vote delegate winner is not the winner of the nomination, the Democratic Party will destroy itself.

[K.C.]

I agree not too well of a night for McCain. I do believe many supporters stayed at home today with the nomination all but locked up. I think Tuesday will be slightly different with big wins in MD and VA.
I am not buying at all that the base won't support him come November be it Hillary or Obama on the other ticket. There is too much potentially at stake for morons like James Dobson and Pat Robertson to sway there minons to stay at home - Supreme Court and Fed Court nominations, etc. Hannity and the like, aside from Rush, are slowly starting to come around.

For the religious right, I think it'll largely depend on McCain's VP...if it's a christian conservative type, then they'll be fine.

That's why, with all these people ruling out McCain not choosing Huckabee as his VP, I wouldn't quite throw it out just yet.

[Dude!]

The latest estimate of delegates for the democrats is as follows:

Clinton, 901 popular vote delegates, 211 super delegates = 1112 total delegates
Obama, 959 popular vote delegates, 137 super delegates = 1096 total delegates.

I'll state this again: No manner the candidate, if the popular vote delegate winner is not the winner of the nomination, the Democratic Party will destroy itself.

what would happen if the popular-vote-delegate-winner
was different from the person who got the most popular votes

it could easily happen

[K.C.]

The Super Delegates had better pay attention to the movement that is happening in the party. I just can't see the Democratic party playing tricks with delegates with a race so tight. They've been courting the youth vote for years, and now that they have it, they had better pay attention to it because if they fuck with the delegate count at the convention, these kids will stay at home come November and McCain will be the President.

Super Delegates will not factor into the decision in a manner where they change the outcome of the vote.

I can guarantee that as fact.



Obama's most likey path to the nomination is:
-Sweep February
-Win one out of Texas or Ohio
-If Hillary stays in after that, win Pennsylvania

Clinton's most likely path to the nomination is:
-pickoff Maine tomorrow
-take Texas and Ohio on March 4th; then Mississippi a week later.
-take Pennsylvania in April
-take Indiana and North Carolina in early May


If they're both still deadlocked at the beginning of May, it's also very likely that you'll start to hear the talk of holding a legitimate primary in Florida and Michigan. That scenario plays in Hillary's favor since she
a) won both already
b) denounced the DNC's decision (albeit after the fact) to exclude them.

[PhilDeez]

For the religious right, I think it'll largely depend on McCain's VP...if it's a christian conservative type, then they'll be fine.

That's why, with all these people ruling out McCain not choosing Huckabee as his VP, I wouldn't quite throw it out just yet.

I disagree. I think the religious right will come out despite the indifference to McCain because of judge appointees, etc. Also, as Hannity, Rush, and the like reluctantly jump on board and get those who need a push to get out and vote the conservative animosity for McCain will subside.
With all that said, I don't think choosing a moderate for VP would hurt. Joe Lieberman, or someone similar, for example might draw a portion of independents that lean toward Obama, or draw democrats that tend to hate Hillary. This ticket would also trump any party unification bid by Obama.
This is all based on the far right coming to bat for McCain as a default to any candidate. If they choose to sit this out, then a part of me really wants the dems to win, appoint far left leaning justices just to show these old hypocrites (Dosbon, Rush, Robertson) how stupid they are.

[epo]

I really don't think he has a shot at all of winning Texas...just whittling down her win and snagging some more delegates. Ohio, however, he could squeak out.

The last poll in Texas that I saw had this:

Clinton - 48%
Obama - 38%

This is data on January 31. Link here. (http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=1)

[IMSlacker]

The last poll in Texas that I saw had this:

Clinton - 48%
Obama - 38%

This is data on January 31. Link here. (http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=1)

FWIW, My mom is a Republican, and she's going to vote for Obama in the Texas primary since she figures McCain's got the nomination wrapped up and she can't stand Hillary. I wonder if other Republicans down here will do the same?

[K.C.]

FWIW, My mom is a Republican, and she's going to vote for Obama in the Texas primary since she figures McCain's got the nomination wrapped up and she can't stand Hillary. I wonder if other Republicans down here will do the same?

Well, the big scam of the primary season is that Republicans would rather run against Hillary than Obama.

It's absolutely untrue. They're not sure how to run against Obama yet, but they absolutely view Hillary as the tougher national candidate. She has a chance to break the solid south in Arkansas and Tennessee, and her high marks with poorer families could tip Ohio, and her high marks with Latinos across the board could tip Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

All of those would be more than enough to win a national election in addition to the traditional blue states.



I'm very intrigued at how Obama plays on a national scale. His inability to get a large percentage of white votes in the South leads me to believe that he won't be able to break the solid South except for maybe Louisiana if there's significant backlash vote against Katrina.

I'm not sure if his low scores among Latino voters is indicative of a larger problem he might have with that base, or if they'll fall in line once he wins the nomination. Latinos are traditionally more of a swing-type vote than say the black vote, and McCain does pretty well there.

If they don't, then not only does it potentially take away Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, but there's a chance, with Schwazenegger campaigning for McCain that it at least puts California in play.

[Neckbeard]

I'm still wary of Hillary getting the nod. I saw a poll where people were asked which of the candidates they disliked and Hillary "won" with 44%, then McCan at 3^% and Obama at 31%. Obama also beats McCain in projected polls right now by 7 or 8 points, whereas Hillary and McCain are almost neck and neck. (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/20008.matchups.schneider/index.html?imw=Y&iref=mpstoryemail)

[Bulldogcakes]

The latest estimate of delegates for the democrats is as follows:

Clinton, 901 popular vote delegates, 211 super delegates = 1112 total delegates
Obama, 959 popular vote delegates, 137 super delegates = 1096 total delegates.

I'll state this again: No manner the candidate, if the popular vote delegate winner is not the winner of the nomination, the Democratic Party will destroy itself.

That's interesting. If this is decided by super delegates, you wonder what the backlash will be. And what Hillary could do to minimize it. Offer Obama the VP slot? Would he accept? Would he bolt the Dems altogether and run 3rd party? He is the "post partisan" candidate after all. He's run a general election campaign from the get go and I suspect he'd do very well, though I haven't seen any 3 way polling data. It's also very possible the Dems split their support and hand the election to McCain. If I was a McCain strategist I'd tell my supporters to vote for Obama in any state that allows it, in hopes of this scenario. But I doubt he'll do that. Not his style.

This election is right there for the Dems to take, if they fuck this up then they are utterly inept.

[Dirtybird12]

BREAKING NEWS: Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager is stepping down. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23099005/)


Just got back from the Hillary Clinton Town Meeting in Manassas VA. What a hoot.
Still voting for Obama though. Just wasn't able to get into T.C. Williams to see him.
So we settled for Bill's brother Hillary.

I couldnt believe the turn out.
Had to be 3500 people trying to squeeze into that place. (Metz Jr High)
We were "lucky?" enough to get in and pretty close to her.
Same ole speech. Nothing new, just kinda cool to be at something like that in person.

should have some pics & vids up later.

[K.C.]

I'm still wary of Hillary getting the nod. I saw a poll where people were asked which of the candidates they disliked and Hillary "won" with 44%, then McCan at 3^% and Obama at 31%. Obama also beats McCain in projected polls right now by 7 or 8 points, whereas Hillary and McCain are almost neck and neck. (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/20008.matchups.schneider/index.html?imw=Y&iref=mpstoryemail)

Don't put too much stock in those polls....those same polls projected Kerry would win in '04 handily, and unfavorable ratings almost never are indicative of how things will turn out. They just provide a starting point for each campaign to know what they have to do. . National polls generally don't mean shit until about September of the election year. I remember in '92 when Ross Perot was leading in the Gallup poll in June of that year.



When these campaign strategists get behind closed doors and try to hammer out how they're going to run against each other, my guess is this will be the McCain plan vs. Obama:

-pick a running mate that's firms up the conservative base.
-hammer him on lack of foreign policy experience.
-hammer him on lack of knowledge on the war on terror
-hammer him on his healthcare plan, making it seem unreasonable to facilitate without raising taxes.
-count on the Solid South to protect itself for the Republican Party (a.k.a. the South won't vote for a black guy)
-court the Latino vote that Obama struggles with.

Obama is largely untested in debating issues, period. He won basically a dog and pony show election to the Senate in 2004 after his opponent Fitzgerald dropped out and they replaced him with Alan F'n Keyes. And this Democratic Primary has been about everything BUT the issues.

So McCain will hammer him on policy detail, and it will be up to Obama to standup to the test. I hope he can do it.



Now if Clinton gets the nod, they'll run against her like they always do:

-hammer the Monica scandal
-call her a liar
-call her a big government liberal
-attack her healthcare plan.

McCain can't really take Hillary on when it comes to National Security, and that's his chief strength. Regardless of whether you agree with her viewpoints on it or not, she knows her shit when it comes to that and is excellent at debating it in the form of policy.

McCain is also hampered by the fact that he has to prove he knows anything about economics, which he's basically conceded he doesn't, whereas Hillary will just absent-mindedly point to the 90s and people will lap it up.



Here's my point...I like Barack Obama...I would have voted for him if I could have. But it is very conceivable that John McCain can beat Barack Obama on the issues this fall, because nobody's seen if Obama can hold up to scrutiny when it comes to talking in specifics about policy.

I think it's less likely McCain could beat Hillary in terms of policy detail...now, he may be able to make up for it in terms of character assassination, which is a gold mine when it comes to the Clintons, but at the end of the day, that has never really worked to the Republicans' benefit.

And I think these Republican strategists know this, and while they hint they don't want to run against Obama, I think it's a bit of a ruse.

[epo]

K.C. -- I think there is a major point that people haven't gotten yet.

Clinton's major argument (since she & Obama are close on many topics) is about their experience vs. judgment. She trumpets her "Ready for the job on Day One" line quite a bit versus the Obama, as well she should.

But as a rhetorical point, Clinton is weak on this one versus McCain. This is no longer a point of sale and then what does she have left? Change? So she'd have to re-tool her message coming out of the primary. On the contrary, Obama would not need to change his message in the least for a general election as it's about change & reaching across the aisle.

I seriously thought at the start of the primaries that Hilliary was running a campaign for the general election & Obama was running a primary election campaign. It looks like exactly the opposite is the truth.

[K.C.]

That's interesting. If this is decided by super delegates, you wonder what the backlash will be. And what Hillary could do to minimize it. Offer Obama the VP slot? Would he accept? Would he bolt the Dems altogether and run 3rd party? He is the "post partisan" candidate after all. He's run a general election campaign from the get go and I suspect he'd do very well, though I haven't seen any 3 way polling data. It's also very possible the Dems split their support and hand the election to McCain. If I was a McCain strategist I'd tell my supporters to vote for Obama in any state that allows it, in hopes of this scenario. But I doubt he'll do that. Not his style.

This election is right there for the Dems to take, if they fuck this up then they are utterly inept.

It absolutely won't come down to Super Delegates....the Super Delegates aren't bound to vote for anyone. If Obama wins more elected votes, they'll go with him.

They'd be stupid not to. They're largely elected party officials....why would they jeporadize their future by breaking with the voters of their own party.

And I would bet very heavily that if Dean gets even a slight sense that this could be a brokered convention with Super Delegates deciding it, he'll order special primary elections in Michigan and Florida to hopefully decide this thing without having to do that.

[K.C.]

K.C. -- I think there is a major point that people haven't gotten yet.

Clinton's major argument (since she & Obama are close on many topics) is about their experience vs. judgment. She trumpets her "Ready for the job on Day One" line quite a bit versus the Obama, as well she should.

But as a rhetorical point, Clinton is weak on this one versus McCain. This is no longer a point of sale and then what does she have left? Change? So she'd have to re-tool her message coming out of the primary. On the contrary, Obama would not need to change his message in the least for a general election as it's about change & reaching across the aisle.

I seriously thought at the start of the primaries that Hilliary was running a campaign for the general election & Obama was running a primary election campaign. It looks like exactly the opposite is the truth.


Her asset in the general will be that she'll claim she's AS experienced, or at least competent, on National Security as McCain, but the main point will be that she's far and away more experienced on economics.

She'll run very much the way Bill Clinton did in '92, on the economy. That's her major advantage over McCain.


Obama will run much the same way he did in the primary, and I'm sure it will be effective to a point, but at the end of the day, nobody knows what will happen when he gets presented with detailed foreign policy questions.

I'd like to see him tested on this before the primary is over, to at least make sure he'll be able to stand up to McCain. Unfortunately, as far as policy goes, he's playing all his cards close to his vest, which is the one looming question about his campaign.

[K.C.]

I'll give one more dilemma Obama will have probably have to solve:

He's in a position where he will need a majority of Latino votes, and a decent portion of white votes in swing states to win in November.

He does very poorly with Latinos right now, and while he's done well with whites in deep blue states, and oddly enough, deep red states, he doesn't do particularly well with them in swing states.

So here's the issue. Say he picks Bill Richardson as his VP to help firm up Latino support. Will white people in midwest swing states (i.e. Missouri) be able to swallow voting for a black guy and a latino, especially with a 'moderate' Republican on the other side, and especially with the likelihood that there will be some 527 groups demonizing the Democrats on immigration this year (which is ironic, because they hate McCain's record on it too).



But let's weigh the flip side. Say he picks a guy like Jim Webb from Virginia or even John Edwards to try and help his standing with some white voters. Does he lose Latinos, and therefore the border states of Arizona, New Mexico, and lets throw in Nevada and Colorado to McCain without strong Latino support? Most likely.

And that's enough to tip the election.


So demographically, he's got a slight issue as well.

[epo]

Alright, one at a time:


Obama has been vague in speechs about specific policy, but all candidates are at this point in the game. Everything he has rolled out though, has been in perfect alignment with his "Blueprint for Change" document on his site. Link to the 64-page document here. (http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf)

On foreign policy, Obama will probably use the exact argument he's used against Hillary: Judgment. McCain supported & still supports the war. McCain is a hawk on Iran. Obama favors diplomacy & working with our allies to find solutions. This is also consistent with his "work across the aisle" stance in America.

I don't think Latinos are the problem that some are playing it up to be. Certainly, Senator Clinton has been doing well them to this point, but that could be attributed to a long history with her husband.

If he got to the point of a VP, he definitely needs a "strong on defense" democrat or a governor. He'll have to judge the perceptions of the time and make a decision then.


Honestly, it's not like Clinton is in the clear with her challenges. If anything, being a "known brand" tends to hurt her in this case. She brings the challenges (right or wrong) of the "Billary" team. I don't know if America is ready for 1998 all over again.

[epo]

MSNBC has called the Maine caucus for Obama. Link to story here (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23098411/).

Preliminary results:

Obama - 57%
Clinton - 42%

[K.C.]

Alright, one at a time:


Obama has been vague in speechs about specific policy, but all candidates are at this point in the game. Everything he has rolled out though, has been in perfect alignment with his "Blueprint for Change" document on his site. Link to the 64-page document here. (http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf)

On foreign policy, Obama will probably use the exact argument he's used against Hillary: Judgment. McCain supported & still supports the war. McCain is a hawk on Iran. Obama favors diplomacy & working with our allies to find solutions. This is also consistent with his "work across the aisle" stance in America.

I don't think Latinos are the problem that some are playing it up to be. Certainly, Senator Clinton has been doing well them to this point, but that could be attributed to a long history with her husband.

If he got to the point of a VP, he definitely needs a "strong on defense" democrat or a governor. He'll have to judge the perceptions of the time and make a decision then.


Honestly, it's not like Clinton is in the clear with her challenges. If anything, being a "known brand" tends to hurt her in this case. She brings the challenges (right or wrong) of the "Billary" team. I don't know if America is ready for 1998 all over again.

I know where Obama stands, which is why I would vote for him, because I've read his platform docs before.

The problem is most people don't, and are voting on superficialities right now. I don't know that saying I'll work with the world and across the aisle, during the speeches and debates, is enough to constitute a platform. You don't think McCain will say the same? It's in the details, and he needs to demonstrate that he can articulate detailed plans in speeches and debates, because let's face it, most Americans won't read policy papers.


I don't know what to make of the Latino vote yet...you could be right, or it could play out like the scenario I laid out...i'll just say that in terms of party loyalty, it's a bit more independent than the black vote.


I agree that Hillary has to overcome certain character issues. It's the biggest weakness of her campaign. But Republicans have ran that campaign since Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas and have yet to beat them.




And I'll add that even though I would vote for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton; the political strategist in me says by far that the best ticket in terms of the Democrats winning the presidency in November would be Clinton/Obama. I think that covers all your bases.

[AKA]

I'm happy with either democratic nominee, and I'd be lying if I said that Obama didn't excite me, but in the end I've committed to vote for Clinton on Tuesday. While I feel Hillary will make a great president, it's really for personal reasons - last summer my best friend, who was a huge Hillary supporter, lost her 10+ year battle with cancer. She really wanted to live to see a woman * become president (* a democratic woman!) - I'm doing this for me, in her honor.

I don't think it's any less valid a reason than others - Clinton and Obama, policy wise, are really close to being the same - and I will have a great feeling of something historic going on. I've met Sen. Clinton once before, and since then have been very impressed with her. I need to do this - in the end, however, if Obama wins Virginia and eventually gets the nomination, I would be thrilled to support him.

VERY jealous, btw, that I didn't go to either local rally.

[Dirtybird12]

Hey AKA - She'll be at George Mason tonight at 9. But if you make it, I'd show up at least 2 hours early - it'll be a maaaaadhouse baby

[DolaMight]

Is Huckabee's current streak fueled largely by voters who may have voted for McCain but are voting Huck knowing that McCain has locked it up and just want to show concern with the ticket? Like a free vote without consequence.

[badmonkey]

Is Huckabee's current streak fueled largely by voters who may have voted for McCain but are voting Huck knowing that McCain has locked it up and just want to show concern with the ticket? Like a free vote without consequence.

Probably more likely that the conservative support was split between Huckabee and Romney before so McCain was winning. If 60% of the conservative vote is pretty evenly split between the other 2 candidates, McCain still wins with 40%. Now that Romney is gone, the vote that used to be split is now all going to one guy.

These numbers came from wikipedia, which I know isn't probably the best source, but I don't have time right now to really dig for them. If somebody else can find a better source with better numbers, post them.

Iowa
Mike Huckabee 40,841 34.41% 17
Mitt Romney 29,949 25.23% 12
John McCain 15,559 13.11% 3

New Hampshire
John McCain 88,571 37.01% 7
Mitt Romney 75,546 31.57% 4
Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.22% 1

Michigan
Mitt Romney 337,785 38.92% 24
John McCain 257,611 29.68% 5
Mike Huckabee 139,549 16.08%

Nevada
Mitt Romney 22,646 51.10% 18
John McCain 5,650 12.75% 4
Mike Huckabee 3,616 8.16% 2

South Carolina
John McCain 147,686 33.15% 19
Mike Huckabee 132,943 29.84% 5
Mitt Romney 68,142 15.30% 0

Florida
John McCain 701,352 35.99% 57
Mitt Romney 604,672 31.03% 0
Mike Huckabee 262,538 13.47% 0

Maine
Mitt Romney 2,787 52.21% 18
John McCain 1,124 21.06% 0
Mike Huckabee 308 5.77% 0

Alabama
Mike Huckabee 230,608 40.90% 20
John McCain 210,989 37.42% 16
Mitt Romney 103,295 18.32% 0

Alaska
Mitt Romney 5,126 44.00% 12
Mike Huckabee 2,548 22.00% 6
John McCain 1,804 15.00% 3

Arizona
John McCain 227,764 48% 53
Mitt Romney 163,967 34% 0
Mike Huckabee 43,118 9% 0

Arkansas
Mike Huckabee 130,541 60% 29
John McCain 44,091 20% 1
Mitt Romney 29,359 14% 1

California
John McCain 959,900 42% 149
Mitt Romney 801,568 34% 6
Mike Huckabee 272,638 12% 0

Colorado
Mitt Romney 33,288 60% 22
John McCain 10,621 19% 0
Mike Huckabee 7,266 13% 0

Connecticut
John McCain 78,741 52% 27
Mitt Romney 49,851 33% 0
Mike Huckabee 10,591 7% 0

Delaware
John McCain 22,626 45.20% 18
Mitt Romney 16,344 32.65% 0
Mike Huckabee 7,706 15.39% 0

Georgia
Mike Huckabee 300,831 34.25% 0
John McCain 286,007 32.56% 0
Mitt Romney 260,358 29.64% 0

Illinois
John McCain 424,071 47% 54
Mitt Romney 256,805 29% 2
Mike Huckabee 147,626 17% 0

Massachusetts
Mitt Romney 255,248 51% 21
John McCain 204,027 41% 17
Mike Huckabee 19,168 4% 0

Missouri
John McCain 194,119 32.97% 58
Mike Huckabee 185,573 31.51% 0
Mitt Romney 172,390 29.28% 0

Montana
Mitt Romney 625 38% 25
John McCain 358 22% 0
Mike Huckabee 245 15% 0

New Jersey
John McCain 310,427 55% 52
Mitt Romney 158,974 28% 0
Mike Huckabee 45,781 8% 0

New York
John McCain 310,814 51% 101
Mitt Romney 168,801 29% 0
Mike Huckabee 65,648 17%

North Dakota
Mitt Romney 3490 36% 8
John McCain 2224 23% 5
Mike Huckabee 1947 20% 5

Utah
Mitt Romney 255,218 90% 36
John McCain 15,264 5% 0
Mike Huckabee 4,054 1% 0

West Virginia
Mike Huckabee 567 51.55% 18 (15)
Mitt Romney 521 47.36% 0
John McCain 12 1.09% 0

Kansas
Mike Huckabee 11,627 60% 33
John McCain 4,587 24% 0
Mitt Romney 653 3% 0

Some of the states where McCain wins, he is easily the winner without dispute. There are also some states where McCain wins and either Romney or Huckabee are so close behind that Romney + 1/2 Huckabee or Huckabee + 1/2 Romney either just beats him or destroys him. This is assuming that the conservative vote is split between thyem and at least half of the other candidates votes would not go to McCain. I don't know if that's a safe assumption or not. Was just thinking that might be the reason republicans seem so upset with McCain as their possible candidate.

[DolaMight]

This is assuming that the conservative vote is split between thyem and at least half of the other candidates votes would not go to McCain. I don't know if that's a safe assumption or not. Was just thinking that might be the reason republicans seem so upset with McCain as their possible candidate.

That's the popular theory but I've heard enough pundits who are of the opinion that romney voters preferred mcain over huck.

Whatever the reason is, McCain needs to target an upset state to stop this momentum soon. He's still gonna win but losing all these states is gonna weaken people's perceptions of him when he gets the ticket.

[K.C.]

Virginia to Obama

Huckabee leading McCain in Virginia early on.

[Neckbeard]

He's got DC, too, and he's trouncing her in VA, which was potentially going to be close.

DO YOU SEE, HILLARY?!?!

DO YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU MESS WITH THE WARRIOR?!?

[epo]

He's got DC, too, and he's trouncing her in VA, which was potentially going to be close.

DO YOU SEE, HILLARY?!?!

DO YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU MESS WITH THE WARRIOR?!?

This is very confusing. I've been calling Hillary the "Pantsuit Warrior" with friends of mine for awhile now. Does this mean that Hillary is battling herself?

[DiabloSammich]

How's MD looking? I have a feeling were gonna screw this up.

[PhilDeez]

Voting extended to 9:30 due to bad weather.

[PapaBear]

On my way to the polls, I still hadn't decided between Hillary or Obama. I was listening to Monday's R&F and they were talking about how Hillary had threatened to boycott MSNBC because of the "pimping out" comment. That's when I decided. I voted for Obama. I'm thinking about sending an email to Hillary's campaign, to let her know about it.

[PapaBear]

I decided to go ahead and email her campaign about my vote. I'm sure they'll send it to her right away.

[Dude!]

what would happen if the popular-vote-delegate-winner
was different from the person who got the most popular votes

it could easily happen


i posted that a month ago and have not gotten an answer here or heard it discussed by talking heads

with wins in these big states plus a big win in PA hillary could end with more popular votes than obama, even though he had more pledged delegates

who then will have the moral high ground to make an argument to the super delegates

this can not possibly have a good outcome for the democrats

[PapaBear]

I saw two super delegates debating on CNN about a week ago. One of them was saying that he saw no reason at all why super delegates should feel the need to support the candidate that wins. He said it was his responsibility to support the candidate that he thinks can win. If you ask me, that's bullshit.

[K.C.]

I saw two super delegates debating on CNN about a week ago. One of them was saying that he saw no reason at all why super delegates should feel the need to support the candidate that wins. He said it was his responsibility to support the candidate that he thinks can win. If you ask me, that's bullshit.

Thems the rules.

Both campaigns knew it going in...it's the same with the whole Michigan/Florida thing...Obama knew about the Super Delegate factor, and Hillary knew that Michigan and Florida were shut out by the DNC this year.

It's what was agreed to.

[PapaBear]

I don't give a damn what they knew going in. It's a stupid rule that is an insult to the voters.

[K.C.]

I don't give a damn what they knew going in. It's a stupid rule that is an insult to the voters.

That's the point of it.


And I'm all for changing it before the next primary season...but my guess is that even if the DNC wanted to change it, they would be sued, and lose.

So it's what they have to deal with.

[DiabloSammich]

That's the point of it.


And I'm all for changing it before the next primary season...but my guess is that even if the DNC wanted to change it, they would be sued, and lose.

So it's what they have to deal with.



Who would sue them? And why would they lose?

[K.C.]

Who would sue them? And why would they lose?

The Clintons and their campaign...and even though the law tries to stray away from interfering in political party disputes, my guess is there would be enough precedent to get legally involved if they tried to change the process 3/4ths of the way through the process.