Super Tuesday!!!!

[scottinnj]

I couldn't wait. I'm sorry. But with Obama winning South Carolina as decisively as he did, and the board here doesn't really care about the Republican Primary in Florida this coming Tuesday, I figured it's TIME FOR SUPER TUESDAY!!!

And for all intents and purpose, the Florida primary won't mean much for us Republicans anyway. At best it will determine whether or not Guiliani remains in the race. Our primaries have been a bore-fest, and it is really now a contest between Romney and McCain, with Huckabee being the spoiler for the two.


S U P E R T U E S D A Y ! ! ! !

[scottinnj]

Those two words keep resonating with me in the Democrat Primaries. No matter who the ultimate winner is, Republicans had better decide now that the "get out the base" strategy had best be coupled with "win the independant vote" strategy if our nominee has any chance of winning.

Democrats are pissed off (I can't blame them a bit) and they are making it known now and this wave will only get bigger the closer we get to November.

[K.C.]

These are all the Super Tuesday states on the Democratic side.

Make sure to look at the date on some of these polls...there hasn't really been any new polling
since Obama's South Carolina victory done yet, and some of these extend from the middle of last year. But these are the most up to date for each state

Alabama (52 delegates)
University of South Alabama (1/23)
Undecided – 33%
Clinton – 31%
Obama – 28%
Edwards – 8%

Alaska Caucuses (13 delegates)
No poll, but newspapers document Obama has the strongest operational presence in the state.

American Samoa (3 delegates)
No data

Arkansas (35 delegates)
Talk Business Quarterly (12/14/07)
Clinton – 57%
Obama – 17%
Edwards – 14%
Undecided – 12%

Arizona (56 delegates)
Behavior (1/20-1/24)
Clinton – 37%
Obama – 27%
Edwards – 15%
Undecided – 21%

California (370 delegates)
Gallup Poll (1/23-1/26)
Clinton – 47%
Obama – 35%
Edwards – 10%
Undecided – 8%

Colorado Caucus (55 delegates)
Mason-Dixon (1/21-1/23)
Obama – 34%
Clinton – 32%
Edwards – 17%
Undecided – 14%

Connecticut (48 delegates)
University of Connecticut (recently)
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 27%
Edwards – 9%
Undecided – 23%

Delaware (15 delegates)
Farleigh Dickinson University (10/6/07)
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 17%
Edwards – 7%
Undecided - 35% (Mostly Biden support that is now in play)

Democrats Abroad (7 delegates)
No data

Georgia (87 delegates)
Rasmussen (1/23-1/25)
Obama – 41%
Clinton – 35%
Edwards – 13%
Undecided – 11%

Idaho Caucus (18 delegates)
Greg Smith & Associates (7/12/07)
Obama – 33%
Clinton – 31%
Edwards – 15%
Undecided – 21%

Illinois (153 delegates)
Research 2000 (1/21-1/24)
Obama – 51%
Clinton – 22%
Edwards – 15%
Undecided – 12%

Kansas (32 delegates)
No data

Massachusetts (93 delegates) (Note: Pre-Ted Kennedy Endorsement)
Survey USA (1/23)
Clinton – 59%
Obama – 22%
Edwards – 11%
Undecided – 8%

Minnesota Caucus (72 delegates)
No data

Missouri (72 delegates)
St.Louis Post-Dispatch (1/28)
Clinton – 44%
Obama – 31%
Edwards – 18%

New Jersey (107 delegates)
Quinnipiac (1/15-1/22)
Clinton – 49%
Obama – 32%
Edwards – 10%
Undecided – 9%

New Mexico Caucus (26 delegates)
No post Bill Richardson data…he led big there.

New York (281 delegates)
Gallup Poll (1/23-1/26)
Clinton – 56%
Obama – 28%
Edwards – 10%
Undecided – 6%

North Dakota Caucus (13 delegates)
No data

Oklahoma (38 delegates)
Survey USA (1/11-1/13)
Clinton – 45%
Edwards – 25%
Obama – 19%
Undecided – 11%

Tennessee (48 delegates)
Crawford Johnson/Northcott (1/19-1/21)
Clinton – 34%
Obama – 20%
Edwards – 16%
Undecided – 30%

Utah (23 delegates)
Desert Morning News (1/8-1/10)
Clinton – 46%
Obama – 23%
Edwards – 9%
Undecided – 22%




Obama has his work cut out for him, but he's within striking distance a lot places with the South Carolina win not being factored in yet.

The caucus states are interesting, because if Edwards doesn't reach viability, it will be interesting to see where his support lands.

[K.C.]

A few new polls came out yesterday on the Dem side that bear noting:

California - Clinton 43% (down 6%), Obama 40% (up 2%)

Connecticut - Clinton 40% (down 1%), Obama 40% (up 13%)

Massachusettes - Clinton 43% (down 16%), Obama 37% (up 15%)


All three are from Rasumussen and taken on the evening of, or after the Kennedy endorsements.

Obama seems to be gaining some huge momentum, but he still has a ways to go. The Democratic Debate Thursday Night will tell the story of Super Tuesday. I think Obama can seize the mantle in a lot of states with a good performance. A loss, and she may be able to put him away.

It should be noted that none of the Edwards vote has been figured in to any polling yet, and we likely won't see how they break until over the weekend. For what it's worth, Edwards polled better than Obama in two states; Missouri, and Oklahoma at the time of his dropping out. He polled better than Clinton in none.

[high fly]

I'm not liking the way they are doing the primaries this time around.
I want to see a longer process where a candidate in the lead after a few states can fall and where a candidate can come from way back in the pack to win....

[scottinnj]

Well, I guess I'm locked into voting Republican here in NJ.

McCain is a lock in our state, so I wanted to cross over and vote for Obama. Unfortunately, I should have done that back in December (or November) I got it mixed up with independants coming in and declaring a party to be able to participate.

So I am urging independants and Democrats in NJ: Please vote for Obama.

[thejives]

c'mon California.

Don't make the same mistake new hampshire did.

[IMSlacker]

I really miss living in a Super Tuesday state. It used to make me feel so important.

[K.C.]

Well, I guess I'm locked into voting Republican here in NJ.

McCain is a lock in our state, so I wanted to cross over and vote for Obama. Unfortunately, I should have done that back in December (or November) I got it mixed up with independants coming in and declaring a party to be able to participate.

So I am urging independants and Democrats in NJ: Please vote for Obama.


Same thing happened to me in Delaware, although I looked in to switching from Ind. to Dem. back in January and we had to do it in October '07 to be eligible for the primaries.

Election rules suck....just make them all open primaries already.

[sailor]

Same thing happened to me in Delaware, although I looked in to switching from Ind. to Dem. back in January and we had to do it in October '07 to be eligible for the primaries.

Election rules suck....just make them all open primaries already.

i don't like the concept of open primaries, unless you just mean independents being eligible to vote.

[K.C.]

i don't like the concept of open primaries, unless you just mean independents being eligible to vote.

Independents can choose which of the two they want to vote in. I would say Third Parties too, but theoretically, you could have a Third Party primary.

[epo]

I'm very happy to live in an Open Primary state, with day-of registration. It seems like the most fair way to operate.

Let's make voting easier...not harder!

[K.C.]

Some new polling data:

Alabama (60 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/31)
Clinton – 47% (up 12%)
Obama – 47% (up 7%)

Alaska
Still no data although Alaska’s most popular Knowles is endorsing Obama which is big for that state.

Connecticut (60 delgates)
SurveyUSA (1/30-1/31)
Obama – 48% (up 8%)
Clinton – 44% (up 4%)

Illinois (185 delegates)
Chicago Tribune (1/29-1/31)
Obama – 55% (up 4%)
Clinton – 24% (up 2%)

Kansas (41 delegates)
No new data, although Obama has all the key endorsements in the state.

Massachusettes (121 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30)
Clinton – 57% (up 14%)
Obama – 33% (down 4%)

Missouri (88 delegates)
Survey USA (1/30-1/31)
Clinton – 48% (up 5%)
Obama – 44% (up 20%)

New Jersey (107 delegates)
RealClearPolitics average of three latest polls (1/30-1/31)
Clinton – 48%
Obama – 38%

New York (281 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30-1/31)
Clinton – 54% (down 2%)
Obama – 38% (up 10%)



Alabama's close, but unless Hillary has a definitive lead there, Obama will probably take it on turnout.

Connecticut keeps surprising me. I almost don't believe those numbers, because I never thought I'd see Obama beat Hillary anywhere in the Northeast, but for whatever reason, his number keeps climbing there.

On the flip side, I'm stunned by the Massachusettes number. I still expected Hillary to eek out a close victory even after the Kennedy endorsement, but if that SurveyUSA poll is accurate, that is very surprising.

Clinton's leading in Missouri, New York, and New Jersey, but the important facts there are the margins. Hillary had huge leads in New York and New Jersey which are being bled down. In a proportional delegate race, underperforming there could kill her. Obama seems to have benefited greatly from Edwards dropping out in Missouri. Again, any tie or margin of error race would seem to benefit Obama because he's been much better at turning out his voters in this primary.

Cautiously optimistic should be the Obama campaign's frame of mind right now. I would want to see more numbers from California and Massachusettes before I get too excited, but if the current state numbers hold up, he wins CA, and at least closes to within a few points in Massachusettes, he's in very good shape.

The Clinton campaign has to be nervous. They're conceding a lot of the South and Midwest to Obama on Super Tuesday by not campaigning there and concentrating on California, New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, Massachusettes, and Connecticut, and yet their margins seem to be dropping everywhere but Massachusettes.

[sailor]

Independents can choose which of the two they want to vote in. I would say Third Parties too, but theoretically, you could have a Third Party primary.

that's cool. i just hate when the republicans vote in democratic primaries and vice versa. if a state were heavily one or the other it could really throw off what the people in the party actually want. i agree independents should be able to vote wherever they want.

[K.C.]

Ron Paul expected to win the Maine Caucuses this weekened (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22947707/from/ET/)

The revolution begins...

[epo]

that's cool. i just hate when the republicans vote in democratic primaries and vice versa. if a state were heavily one or the other it could really throw off what the people in the party actually want. i agree independents should be able to vote wherever they want.

Sailor, I've always considered that a test of your personal ethics. I'm a Democrat, through & through...and I could not bring myself to vote Republican in a primary. It's simply not my fight.

[sailor]

Sailor, I've always considered that a test of your personal ethics. I'm a Democrat, through & through...and I could not bring myself to vote Republican in a primary. It's simply not my fight.

exactly. but a lot of folks do. i know there was a lot of talk of mccain being helped by it early on.

[jauble]

I'm very happy to live in an Open Primary state, with day-of registration. It seems like the most fair way to operate.

Let's make voting easier...not harder!

you obviously dont work for the man

[scottinnj]

i don't like the concept of open primaries, unless you just mean independents being eligible to vote.

Even that isn't fair here in NJ, if you are an independent, you have to declare a party, join that party and then you can vote for your candidate. But then you are a Democrat or a Republican, when you want to be an independant.

Why can't independant voters just declare a party, then vote and still remain independent?

I'm hoping against hope that sometime in the past 5 or 6 years I switched to independent so I can declare (gulp) being a Democrat, and vote for Obama. Or that we have a write in option that I can vote for Obama even though only the Republican column will be lit.


Help me write in option, you're my only hope!

http://static.zoovy.com/img/motorcowboy/-/L/leiascreenpic1

[Ritalin]

Anybody seen this yet? I dig it.

My favorite line?

"In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope."

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[high fly]

Was that Kareem?

[scottinnj]

Was that Kareem?

I think so. Pretty cool huh?

[Heather 8]

So I am urging independants and Democrats in NJ: Please vote for Obama.

Plan to, but only because Edwards dropped out. I just cannot bring myself to vote for Hillary.


I'm very happy to live in an Open Primary state, with day-of registration. It seems like the most fair way to operate.

Let's make voting easier...not harder!

Yet another thing I miss about Wisconsin. And, like you, I never voted outside my personal beliefs during the primaries. I consider myself a Democrat, so I always voted that way. Unfortunately, I knew a lot of self-declared Dems who voted Republican during the primaries to give Russ Feingold a "softer" opponent.

[scottinnj]

I'm hoping a lot of Democrats and Independents who were planning to go Edwards on Tuesday will be going for Obama instead of Hillary.

[K.C.]

Well, it'll be the news of the day today:

C-Span/Reuters/Zogby California Poll
Obama - 45%
Clinton - 41%

Zogby's usually the most reliable of the individual pollsters. The Field Poll has Clinton up 2 (36-34) and the Mason-Dixon Poll inexplicably has her up 9 (45-36)

I'd say it's probably within the margin of error one way or the other in CA.


Some other ones out today:
Arizona
Mason-Dixon
Clinton - 43%
Obama - 41%

Missouri
C-Span/Reuters/Zogby
Clinton - 44%
Obama - 43%

New Jersey
C-Span/Reuters/Zogby
Clinton - 43%
Obama - 42%

New York
Rasmussen
Clinton - 51%
Obama - 30%


All of them except for New York is showing a big time surge for Obama in the last 48 hrs. Undecideds seem to be breaking heavily towards him. If that New Jersey number is real, that is a bad, bad, omen for the Clinton campaign.

Because there's so many poll, it's kind of hard to figure out which ones to listen to.

Generally, the better ones I usually see are:
-Zogby
-Rasmussen
-Marist
-Gallup
-All the rest

[high fly]

Originally Posted by high fly
Was that Kareem?



I think so. Pretty cool huh?


Sure is.
Remember when those Hanafi Muslims took over the D.C. building?
Seems to me they were tied to Kareem somehow.


Anyway, as a Democrat I would be happy with either Hillary or Obama.

Hillary has been the subject of a hate campaign for years.
It has been amusing listening to Manatee's participation in it.
He first began by settling on a distorted image of her as a far leftie socialist and hammering that home.
Then whenever the facts come out to show she is closer to the middle of the political spectrum, he claims she is "reinventing herself" and claims to know the "real" Hillary better than she knows herself.



And before we hear the usual squawling about national health care being "socialist," I wonder which Republican, candidate for prez or not, has come out in favor of abolishing Medicaid and Medicare?
I'll give you Ron Paul.
Any others?

If not, then if you vote for Romney, McCain, Huckabee or any other GOP nominee, you'll be voting for "socialized" health care, won't you?

[scottinnj]

Yeah, but Medicare is sort of like the Public School system. We have decided that the kids have a right to a basic education, and we collectively pay for it.

Same thing with Medicare. We have decided the elderly need some sort of health insurance due to many retiring from small companies that can't afford to offer them a health care package in their pension plans.

It's mainly that Republicans and Democrats differ on how much is to be spent on it.

[K.C.]

Final Polling Data

This is the last compilation I'll post before tomorrow...the numbers are pretty shocking. Obama's surge over the last week is huge.







National Poll
USA Today/Gallup (1/30-2/02)
Clinton – 45%
Obama – 44%

Alabama (52 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30-1/31)
Clinton 47%
Obama 47%

Alaska (13 delegates)
No poll, survey on the ground suggest Obama advantage.

American Samoa (3 delegates)
No data

Arizona (56 delegates)
Mason-Dixon (1/30-2/01)
Clinton – 43%
Obama – 41%

Arkansas (35 delegates)
No poll, survey on the ground suggests big Clinton advantage

California (370 delegates)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
Obama – 46%
Clinton – 40%

Colorado (55 delegates)
Denver Post (1/21-1/23)
Obama – 34%
Clinton – 32%

Connecticut (48 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30-1/31)
Obama – 48%
Clinton – 44%

Delaware (15 delegates)
American Research Group (1/31-2/02)
Clinton – 44%
Obama – 42%

Democrats Abroad (7 delegates)
No data

Georgia (87 delegates)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
Obama – 48%
Clinton – 31%

Idaho (18 delegates)
No data

Illinois (153 delegates)
Chicago Tribune (1/29-1/31)
Obama – 55%
Clinton – 24%

Kansas (32 delegates)
No poll, Obama’s received the endorsements of all the state’s major politicians

Massachusettes (93 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30)
Clinton – 57%
Obama – 33%

Minnesota (72 delegates)
Minnesota Public Radio (1/18-1/27)
Clinton – 40%
Obama – 33%

Missouri (72 delegates)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
Obama – 47%
Clinton – 42%

New Jersey (107 delegates)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
Clinton – 43%
Obama – 43%

New Mexico (26 delegates)
New Mexico University (1/22-1/31)
Obama – 48%
Clinton – 42%

New York (281 delegates)
Quinnepiac (1/30-2/04)
Clinton – 53%
Obama – 39%

North Dakota (13 delegates)
No poll, Obama receiving most of state’s endorsements.

Oklahoma (38 delegates)
Sooner Poll (1/27-1/30)
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 17%

Tennessee (48 delegates)
Insider Advanatage (2/02)
Clinton – 55%
Obama – 35%

Utah (23 delegates)
Desert Morning News/KSL-TV (1/30-2/1)
Obama – 53%
Clinton – 29%

[K.C.]

Republican side


National
USA Today/Gallup (1/30-2/02)
McCain – 42%
Romney – 24%
Huckabee – 18%
Paul – 5%


Alabama (48 delegates)
InsiderAdvantage (1/31)
McCain – 37%
Huckabee – 35%
Romney – 14%
Paul – 5%

Alaska (29 delegates)
No poll, but word from the ground has it as a Romney/Huckabee toss-up.

Arizona (53 delegates – winner takes all)
Rasmussen (1/31)
McCain – 43%
Romney – 34%
Huckabee – 9%
Paul – 7%

Arkansas (34 delegates)
No poll, but the buzz on the ground suggests a sizeable Huckabee advantage

California (173 delegates)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
Romney – 40%
McCain – 32%
Huckabee – 12%
Paul – 5%

Colorado (46 delegates)
Denver Post (1/21-1/23)
Romney – 43%
McCain – 24%
Huckabee – 17%
Paul – 5%

Connecticut (30 delegates – winner takes all)
SurveyUSA (1/30-1/31)
McCain – 53%
Romney – 31%
Huckabee – 6%
Paul – 5%

Delaware (18 delegates – winner takes all)
American Research Group (1/31-2/1)
McCain – 41%
Romney – 35%
Huckabee – 7%
Paul – 5%

Georgia (72 delegates)
Rasmussen (2/02)
McCain – 31%
Romney – 29%
Huckabee – 28%
Paul – 6%

Illinois (70 delegates)
Chicago Tribune (1/30-1/31)
McCain – 43%
Romney – 20%
Huckabee – 15%
Paul – 4%

Minnesota (41 delegates)
Minnesota Public Radio (1/18-1/27)
McCain – 41%
Huckabee – 22%
Romney – 27%
Paul – 5%

Massachusettes (43 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/30)
Romney – 57%
McCain – 34%
Huckabee – 3%
Paul – 3%

Missouri (58 delegates – winner takes all)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
McCain – 35%
Huckabee – 27%
Romney – 24%
Paul – 5%

Montana (25 delegates – winner takes all)
No poll, thought to be a slight edge to Romney

New Jersey (52 delegates – winner takes all)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
McCain – 51%
Romney – 26%
Huckabee – 7%
Paul – 5%

New York (101 delegates – winner takes all)
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby (2/01-2/03)
McCain – 53%
Romney – 19%
Huckabee – 8%
Paul – 5%

North Dakota (26 delegates – winner takes all)
No data

Oklahoma (41 delegates)
SurveyUSA (1/27)
McCain – 37%
Huckabee – 28%
Romney – 19%
Paul – 6%

Tennessee (55 delegates)
InsiderAdvantage (2/02)
McCain – 32%
Huckabee – 30%
Romney – 22%
Paul – 6%

Utah (36 delegates – winner takes all)
Desert Morning News (2/1)
Romney – 84%
McCain – 4%

West Virginia (30 delegates – winner takes all)
No data, expected to lean towards McCain

[K.C.]

This is kind of what needs to happen to prevent McCain from locking this up tomorrow night for the Republicans:

Huckabee wins Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee (within the realm of possibility)

Romney wins Alaska, California, Colorado, Massachusettes, Montana, North Dakota, Utah

McCain wins Arizona, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, West Virginia



The problem, and what will likely derail Romney is that while Huckabee is close in a lot southern states, he doesn't have the momentum right now to jump McCain, and if McCain takes most of the Huckabee states, the perception will be that the race is over.

[TheMojoPin]

Go Obama!

But seriously, what the fuck, Mass.? Guess that Boston "love" for all things "urban" goes a long way.

[epo]

So a friend of mine in California called me to inform me that he'd been push polled earlier today. According to him the conversation opened with this:

"Sir are you aware of Barack Hussein Obama's religion?"

"Have you heard the rumors of Barack Obama being Muslim?"

Nobody said politics wasn't messy.

[scottinnj]

So a friend of mine in California called me to inform me that he'd been push polled earlier today. According to him the conversation opened with this:

"Sir are you aware of Barack Hussein Obama's religion?"

"Have you heard the rumors of Barack Obama being Muslim?"

Nobody said politics wasn't messy.

I loooooathe pollsters. And yet I can't stop reading their information. How much crack is left in that pipe, Mr. Gallup? I can get another hit out of it.

[K.C.]

So a friend of mine in California called me to inform me that he'd been push polled earlier today. According to him the conversation opened with this:

"Sir are you aware of Barack Hussein Obama's religion?"

"Have you heard the rumors of Barack Obama being Muslim?"

Nobody said politics wasn't messy.

Yeah, I got a Robocall from both Obama and Hillary this weekend, and Obama sent a pretty nasty mailer out here about Hillary.

When comes down to it, they all go back to the same playbook.



Although the muslim thing is kind interesting, considering it's been discussed and disproven 800,000 times this election cycle....that's almost lower than a low blow.

[BoondockSaint]

MSNBC is calling it Monster Tuesday. I'm voting for Godzilla over Cloverfield.

[K.C.]

MSNBC is calling it Monster Tuesday. I'm voting for Godzilla over Cloverfield.

Word has it that the See No Evil Kane is trying to sue his way on to the ballot in certain states....I hate third parties.

[scottinnj]

MSNBC is calling it Monster Tuesday. I'm voting for Godzilla over Cloverfield.

Which Godzilla? Japan Godzilla or Ferris Bueller Godzilla?

I like old school Japan Godzilla better. He had a kickass program for urban sprawl, and when I say kickass, I mean, KICKASS!

http://www.stomptokyo.com/img-m7/g-finalwars-e.jpg

[CruelCircus]

Even that isn't fair here in NJ, if you are an independent, you have to declare a party, join that party and then you can vote for your candidate. But then you are a Democrat or a Republican, when you want to be an independant.

Why can't independant voters just declare a party, then vote and still remain independent?

Because the primaries are in place so that each party can decide who will represent it in the Election in November. Since each party is deciding for itself, you really should have to be a member of one of them to be able to take part. If you're not a member of either party, why would you want to participate in their decision making process?

[scottinnj]

Super Tuesday is here!!!

OH HAPPY DAY!


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[joethebartender]

I was happy to be a part of this on Saturday.
The Star-Ledger article:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/dark_horse_ron_paul_scores_ups.html

[PapaBear]

I'm more excited about next Tuesday. I haven't voted in a primary since 1984.

[Fezticle98]

I'm more excited about next Tuesday. I haven't voted in a primary since 1984.

Was Mondale your Barack Obama?

[K.C.]

West Virginia Republican Convention (18 delegates)

This is the first contest that is being decided right now. They're done their first ballot and casting their second now. Whoever gets the first majority of votes at the convention wins all 18.

The first ballot was:
Romney - 41%
Huckabee - 33%
McCain - 16%
Paul - 10%

Ron Paul is out here, and McCain's is not going to win. Seems to me very likely that Huckabee comes out the winner on the second ballot. McCain's voters strategically don't want Romney to win, and even though the Paul voters are tough to figure out, it would seem to me that they'd fall more in line with Huckabee's populism, then Romney's neo-conservatism.

That'd be a decent upset if Huckabee pulls out the win there.


UPDATE: My theory is reality....McCain asks supporters in WV to back Huckabee. (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/west_virginia_intrigue.php)

[badmonkey]

Tired of the same bunch of ugly people on cable news telling you what's going on?

I give you...The Porn Stars' Guide to Super Tuesday (http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/xxfactor/archive/2008/02/04/the-porn-stars-guide-to-super-tuesday.aspx)

[epo]

Was Mondale your Barack Obama?

No, but John McCain stinks of Bob Dole.

[thejives]

I just voted.
Feels good. Real good.

[SinA]

No, but John McCain stinks of Bob Dole.

John McCain is a "hero" because he was a careless pilot.

What, too insensitive?

[badmonkey]

John McCain is a "hero" because he was a careless pilot.

What, too insensitive?

John McCain is a war hero because he volunteered for the Navy, volunteered for combat duty in Vietnam, and risked his life in combat.

Every morning when you wake up, you should bow down in front of a statue of John McCain and thank him because if it wasn't for John McCain, your ass would be speaking Vietnamese.

[SinA]

John McCain is a war hero because he volunteered for the Navy, volunteered for combat duty in Vietnam, and risked his life in combat.

Every morning when you wake up, you should bow down in front of a statue of John McCain and thank him because if it wasn't for John McCain, your ass would be speaking Vietnamese.

Volunteer for the Navy, Vietnam, combat? That makes my Dad a hero too. I wonder if McCain also signed up because he knocked up my Mom.

C'mon.... it's a joke!

[BoondockSaint]

I voted like Oprah told me to. Uggs in '08!

[nate1000]

Broward County can relax again. Apparently they are no longer the dumbest county in the nation:

http://www.ksat.com/politics/15220830/detail.html

Don't worry, though. I am sure Florida will find a way before November to demonstrate again that they are the retarded half brother of the union.

[DolaMight]

Every morning when you wake up, you should bow down in front of a statue of John McCain and thank him because if it wasn't for John McCain, your ass would be speaking Vietnamese.

C'mon.... it's a joke!

That's nothing to joke about. Badmonkey is correct, after McCain broke our of his prison camp he single-handedly drove charlie out of upstate new york and all the way back to Cambodia. You'd be spending your summers in the great rice fields of new jersey if not for McCain.

[K.C.]

That's nothing to joke about. Badmonkey is correct, after McCain broke our of his prison camp he single-handedly drove charlie out of upstate new york and all the way back to Cambodia. You'd be spending your summers in the great rice fields of new jersey if not for McCain.

I heard John McCain slit the throat of the Ayatollah of Iran with a butter knife, and single-handled rescued all the hostages in Iran in 1981.

http://rightsfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/john-mccain2.jpg

[DolaMight]

I heard John McCain slit the throat of the Ayatollah of Iran with a butter knife, and single-handled rescued all the hostages in Iran in 1981.

http://rightsfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/john-mccain2.jpg

I heard John McCain wanted to paint the Empire State Building pink so he could lie down on the sidewalk, spread his legs against the building and say "Hey look at my cock, it's huge!"

http://arianiekeeney.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/mccain-topper.jpg

[scottinnj]

No, but John McCain stinks of Bob Dole.


Or Doug Forrester for fellow Jersey Republicans.


Forrester was two words here in NJ- UN ELECTABLE.

[K.C.]

Georgia

Networks project it for Obama

Too close to call for Republicans.

[scottinnj]

I voted for McCain. I wanted to try to do a write in for Obama, but our new voting machines have a keypad entry system for "write-in" ballots, instead of a window that you raised and actually "wrote" your choice if you didn't want to vote for who was above the lever. That was disabled, and the keypad was locked out.

So I voted for McCain, and then mailed in a registration form to the state to change my party affiliation from Republican to "Unaffiliated" Hopefully I will be able to vote either way next primary.

[scottinnj]

Georgia

Networks project it for Obama
Too close to call for Republicans.


NICE!!!

[K.C.]

MSNBC is reporting that in the exit polls in Georgia Obama got 84% of the black vote...but here's the kicker....43% of the white vote....in Georgia.

That my friends, is a rout.

UPDATE: This looks like a huge Obama victory passed on the exit polls. He won every age group (except tied Hillary with 65+ voters), split white men evenly, and dominated her in the black vote. Hillary's one fall back was white women, who stood by her to a degree.

This could be a high 60s, low 70s number for Obama in Georgia.

UPDATE II: Huckabee is holding an early lead. McCain in a close second. Romney a ways back in third, according to the numbers coming in to the Georgia Election Results site.

[TooLowBrow]

MSNBC is reporting that in the exit polls in Georgia Obama got 84% of the black vote...but here's the kicker....43% of the white vote....in Georgia.

That my friends, is a rout.


I beg your pardon?

Your rout. Your cunning attempt to trick me.

[chubbykins]

Volunteer for the Navy, Vietnam, combat? That makes my Dad a hero too. I wonder if McCain also signed up because he knocked up my Mom.

C'mon.... it's a joke!

There are many things that we joke about on ronfez.net and that includes politics, but come on man don't ever joke about the war and what a brave man did for our country. It's just not right; he suffers every day of his life with each kill he's made, with each day he spent in prison camp, what torture he endured... He escaped and he survived and now he's trying to make our country a better place again, my hats off to him... I see what Vietnam did to my father and continues to do to him and he's one of the lucky ones that wasn't physically harmed, but the scars are still there, at night when he screams out because his dreams are still in the jungles and he still sees all those hideous things... Just think.... :annoyed:

[high fly]

So a friend of mine in California called me to inform me that he'd been push polled earlier today. According to him the conversation opened with this:

"Sir are you aware of Barack Hussein Obama's religion?"

"Have you heard the rumors of Barack Obama being Muslim?"

Nobody said politics wasn't messy.


Wait until the ads come out showing McCain giving secrets to the Congs.....


And I know of some Marine aviators who are waiting to come out with Hillary lesbo stories...

[K.C.]

8:00 PM Update

Georgia
Obama (projected winner) 52%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 37%
McCain 35%
Romney 24%
Paul 2%

Connecticut
Obama/Clinton too close to call
McCain projected winner

Massachusettes
Obama/Clinton too close to call
Romney projected winner

Illinois
Obama projected winner
McCain projected winner

Oklahoma
Clinton projected winner
Republicans too close to call.



Rest are too close to call.

UPDATE: CNN projects New Jersey for John McCain

[scottinnj]

Fox News exit polling is calling NJ a win for McCain. No word on how Democrats voted.

C'mon Jersey....give us OBAMA!!!

[TooLowBrow]

CNN projects Obama as Democratic winner in Illinois and Georgia; Clinton wins Oklahoma
On Republican side, CNN projects Romney as winner in Massachusetts; McCain wins Connecticut and Illinois
Exit polls indicate conservative split in Republican ranks
Mike Huckabee wins West Virginia GOP convention

[TooLowBrow]

Fox News exit polling is calling NJ a win for McCain. No word on how Democrats voted.

C'mon Jersey....give us OBAMA!!!

clinton 64%
obama 23%

[HBox]

Hillary takes Tennessee.

[TooLowBrow]

Democratic Races
Reporting

MO 0%
Clinton 57%
Obama 24%

MA 0%
Clinton 50%
Obama 46%

CT 3%
Obama 50%
Clinton 47%

NJ 0%
Clinton 64%
Obama 23%

TN 0%
Clinton 48%
Obama 42%


Republican Races
Reporting

MO 0%
Huckabee 33%
McCain 28%

MT 7%
McCain 39%
Romney 36%

NJ 0%
McCain 40%
Giuliani 26%

OK 1%
McCain 43%
Huckabee 32%

TN 0%
McCain 35%
Romney 25%

[Snacks]

There are many things that we joke about on ronfez.net and that includes politics, but come on man don't ever joke about the war and what a brave man did for our country. It's just not right; he suffers every day of his life with each kill he's made, with each day he spent in prison camp, what torture he endured... He escaped and he survived and now he's trying to make our country a better place again, my hats off to him... I see what Vietnam did to my father and continues to do to him and he's one of the lucky ones that wasn't physically harmed, but the scars are still there, at night when he screams out because his dreams are still in the jungles and he still sees all those hideous things... Just think.... :annoyed:

Sounds to me like you dont like the idea of war or what it does to those that fight in wars? Then how can respect or vote for a man who wants to continue this war and thinks we will be in Iraq for 100 years?Voting for Mccain or another Bush will do to future soldiers what happened to your dad. Do you want that to happen?


Fox News exit polling is calling NJ a win for McCain. No word on how Democrats voted.

C'mon Jersey....give us OBAMA!!!

I voted for Obama. When I voted they gave yo either a pink card or blue card to hand to the women working the computer. Pink was for Dems and Blue was for reublicans. The #'s were 2 to 1 for democrats voting. :clap:

I was a little pissed to see the dems got the pink cards and the reps got the blue. The Dems are Blue so why not give us the Blue and give the Republicans pink? Pink is a variation of red!!! I think Bush was trying to send a message that dems are girls!

[Tenbatsuzen]

Or Doug Forrester for fellow Jersey Republicans.


Forrester was two words here in NJ- UN ELECTABLE.

Yeah, and look what happened - we got Corzine.

[scottinnj]

Yeah, and look what happened - we got Corzine.

Don't blame me, I voted for Brett Schundler.

[K.C.]

Well, nothing really surprising yet, except for maybe Huckabee's strength in Georgia.

[Tenbatsuzen]

Don't blame me, I voted for Brett Schundler.

So you were the one.

[scottinnj]

So you were the one.

One of two, my siamese cousin had no choice.

[HBox]

Did anyone else just watch Chuck Todd on MSNBC? If not here it is in short: The delegate system is REALLY favoring Obama. He's racking up huge delegate gains in Illinois and Georgia and where Clinton is winning she isn't getting a big delegate edge. She might win Mass and lose the delegate count.

[K.C.]

Alright, let me give a quick run-down of what I'm seeing.

Alabama
Big margin for Obama...he should win it handily. Huckabee and McCain are deadlocked, which is no surprise.

Arkansas
No surprises; Clinton and Huckabee win by big margins.

Conneticut
Obama is clinging to a 4 point lead there...that would be a pretty significant upset if it holds up. McCain won handily, probably on the strength of the Rudy endorsement.

Delaware
Obama is clinging to a similiar lead...again, that would be a sizeable upset if he wins. I always expected McCain to win here, and he did.

Georgia
Big Obama victory. Good margin. Huckabee is holding off McCain and Romney. Crucial state for Romney but he's a healthy way behind in third.

Illinois
No surprises...Obama big, McCain big.

Massachusettes
Big showing for Clinton here...she's up double-digits, and looks poised for victory. Nice show of strength. Romney is up 12, but considering its his home state, not a very impressive turnout.

Missouri
Another big time show of strength for Clinton. Her margin here is also impressive. Another three way race on the Republican side...again, like Georgia this is winner take all so if Huckabee pulls this out, he has the potential to throw a wrench in this night for McCain and Romney.

Montana (Republicans)
Romney's trailing here slightly to McCain....this was thought to be big time Romney country. Romney's performance tonight so far is looking very poor.

New Jersey
Clinton looks to have this locked up by a healthy margin. It was close in the polls, but she's dominating. McCain win is no shock.

Oklahoma
This was strong Clinton all the way in the polls, so no surprise. This has turned interesting as Huckabee is challenging McCain here as well.

Tennessee
Strong Clinton margin, solid McCain margin.


Clinton/Obama is close....Huckabee has jumped Romney in most states as the direct challenger to McCain.

[high fly]

I want Romney to win for the GOP.

I am undecided between Hillary and Obama......

[high fly]

If Romney wins it all, it will be fun to watch how,over the years, his hairdresser lets that little spritz of white hair they leave undyed at his ears grow.

Right now it's just a teensy concession to his advancing years to give him a sort of "distinguished" look.

Us older chaps will recall watching the same progression that Carson and later Leno, went through...



Reminds me of the old Mary Tyler Moore show episode when Ted Baxter got ahold of some Grecian Formula.
The show depicted several days.
The first day, Ted's hair was completely white.
The second day he comes in and it's battleship gray on top.
The next day it has a battleship gray stripe on thesides above a white stripe, and jet black on top.
By the last day it is jet black all over and Ted is acting the whole time like nuthin's happening and Murray is asking him if he is on a diet or something....

[Tenbatsuzen]

Did anyone else just watch Chuck Todd on MSNBC? If not here it is in short: The delegate system is REALLY favoring Obama. He's racking up huge delegate gains in Illinois and Georgia and where Clinton is winning she isn't getting a big delegate edge. She might win Mass and lose the delegate count.

Isn't he the guy that shows up if you say his name in the mirror three times?

[scottinnj]

California coming up in two minutes. C'mon Cali!

[Bulldogcakes]

Anyone have a delegate total for each candidate yet?

[HBox]

Anyone have a delegate total for each candidate yet?

Not official and total. There are some very preliminary totals floating about but those discount a lot of delegates. I think they are only the delegates that candidates automatically get when they win a state.

[HBox]

Huckabee sounds like he's running for President of the Confederacy.

[Tenbatsuzen]

Huckabee sounds like he's running for President of the Confederacy.

Wanting the vital Cumia endorsement?

[HBox]

Wanting the vital Cumia endorsement?

Any white male automatically gets that.

[chubbykins]

Sounds to me like you dont like the idea of war or what it does to those that fight in wars? Then how can respect or vote for a man who wants to continue this war and thinks we will be in Iraq for 100 years?Voting for Mccain or another Bush will do to future soldiers what happened to your dad. Do you want that to happen?


That is true, I'm not voting for McCain or God forbid another Bush, I'm going to vote Obama... I'm sorry if I didn't make that more clear... I was just very upset, no disrespect to SinA, I know it was just a joke, but I see what my Dad goes through it's sad because he's a good man and everyone that came home from Vietnam was treated like a baby killer not a hero... They didn't choose to go there they were drafted... But that is said and done... Go Obama!!! :happy:

[HBox]

Terry McAulliffe is practically jerking off over Hillary winning Massachusetts. All Ted and Kerry did was make an easy win for Hillary look substantial.

[scottinnj]

California coming up in two minutes. C'mon Cali!

My bad. I forgot they close at 11pm EST.

[HBox]

OBAMA TAKES CONNECTICUT!

[scottinnj]

MSNBC and Fox call Conneticut for Obama. So goes the tri-state tri-fecta for Hillary. Do I sound like a TV pundit yet?

[Tenbatsuzen]

I mentioned this to Hbox, but does anyone notice how much Obama's voice sounds like The Rock's? Not the cadence, just his voice.

[K.C.]

Huckabee sounds like he's running for President of the Confederacy.

In a sense he is.

-Arkansas
-Alabama
-Georgia
-Tennessee
-West Virginia
-Missouri

Actually a good night for the Huckster.

If Romney can hold out in Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana, Utah, California, and so forth, McCain will have some work to do to lock it up.

[CruelCircus]

I'm curious as to what coverage everyone is following.
I started on ABC, but quickly flipped over to MSNBC b/c Sawyer and Gibson are awful.
To me they always seem to have the most interesting guests and panelists. Even as a Republican, I find Fox's coverage a little dry- wish they'd use Hannity or O'Reilly like MSNBC does w/ their opinion types.

[epo]

Terry McAulliffe is practically jerking off over Hillary winning Massachusetts. All Ted and Kerry did was make an easy win for Hillary look substantial.

I can't stand that sombitch.

[scottinnj]

Terry McAulliffe is practically jerking off over Hillary winning Massachusetts. All Ted and Kerry did was make an easy win for Hillary look substantial.

I can't stand that sombitch.

Terry is just waaay to smug and arrogant for me. Hey Terry, you're being glib!:clap:

[epo]

I got home not too long ago. Have the pundits talked about two things:

1. Mail-in votes.
2. Caucus vs. Primary (Obama's advantage in those caucus states)

Just wondering.....????

[HBox]

I got home not too long ago. Have the pundits talked about two things:

1. Mail-in votes.
2. Caucus vs. Primary (Obama's advantage in those caucus states)

Just wondering.....????

2 was mentioned on MSNBC.

[epo]

Also, I got a phone call about two hours ago from a friend of mine in the Bay Area of California. He said the turnout was huge and there were ballot shortages.

If that is true, California might not turn out as the Clinton camp would hope.

[scottinnj]

NEWS FLASH! (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Bermans_count_606534.html)

Obama 606 delegates

Clinton 534 delgates

[epo]

2 was mentioned on MSNBC.

Did they attribute it to anything, or just brush it off to "small state/regional" factors?

[HBox]

Did they attribute it to anything, or just brush it off to "small state/regional" factors?

They didn't explore the issue, just mentioned it.

As an aside, I want to kill myself listening to Haley Barbour.

[scottinnj]

Also, I got a phone call about two hours ago from a friend of mine in the Bay Area of California. He said the turnout was huge and there were ballot shortages.

If that is true, California might not turn out as the Clinton camp would hope.

do NOT tease me bro, I had high hopes for NJ with the surge Obama had over the weekend.

Other then that, I gotta say I love you for getting me on the Obama wagon. I "came out" to my family yesterday and urged them to follow me.
Two of my sisters are going for Obama. I don't know how my parents are dealing with my switch to independent from Republican.

[epo]

do NOT tease me bro, I had high hopes for NJ with the surge Obama had over the weekend.

Other then that, I gotta say I love you for getting me on the Obama wagon. I "came out" to my family yesterday and urged them to follow me.
Two of my sisters are going for Obama. I don't know how my parents are dealing with my switch to independent from Republican.

I also got a story from an Obama organizer this evening that turnout was huge in California when I asked him how the evening was going. Of course he didn't have results at the time, but their camp is equating high turnover with higher odds.

[CruelCircus]

Did Hillary just criticize someone for being beholden to special interests?!?!?!

She's got stones, I'll give her that much.

[epo]

Did Hillary just criticize someone for being beholden to special interests?!?!?!

She's got stones, I'll give her that much.

Everybody is against the fatcats!

[HBox]

I know it's still a big margin but in Arizona I thought McCain would win bigger. it took them a while to call it too.

[Freakshow]

In a sense he is.

-Arkansas
-Alabama
-Georgia
-Tennessee
-West Virginia
-Missouri

Actually a good night for the Huckster.

If Romney can hold out in Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana, Utah, California, and so forth, McCain will have some work to do to lock it up.

You do realize West Virginia exists purely because they didn't want to secede with the rest of Virginia, right?

And Huckabee won Iowa, remember.

[TheMojoPin]

Fuck you, Boston.

You know why.

Too bad your new dynasty of losing didn't just begin and end with the Patriots.

[HBox]

Fuck you, Boston.

You know why.

Too bad your new dynasty of losing didn't just begin and end with the Patriots.

I heard that Obama did well in Boston. It was the rest of the state who fucked it up.

[scottinnj]

We'll start to know for sure in 8 minutes. At least the delegates are not "all or nothing" out there.


THE MATRIX

Trinity: Morpheus, what is scottinnj doing?


Morpheus: He's beginning to believe!

http://i121.photobucket.com/albums/o217/themarshal/red_pill_blue_pill1.jpg

[sailor]

You do realize West Virginia exists purely because they didn't want to secede with the rest of Virginia, right?

And Huckabee won Iowa, remember.

i point that out every few months. falls on deaf ears. i also love that there were like 1100 republicans who voted in the primary. hilarious.

[TheMojoPin]

I heard that Obama did well in Boston. It was the rest of the state who fucked it up.

Goddammit.

Don't make me forgive Boston.

[TheMojoPin]

i point that out every few months.

What a weirdo.

[scottinnj]

Alright, I'm clearing the cache and rebooting. I'll see you all in 5 minutes

[HBox]

i point that out every few months. falls on deaf ears. i also love that there were like 1100 republicans who voted in the primary. hilarious.

I know that made me laugh my balls off.

[HBox]

Goddammit.

Don't make me forgive Boston.

You may have to. I heard before he did so well in Boston that it will limit the delegate advantage Hillary will get from the state. She swept in western Mass.

[sailor]

What a weirdo.

half my family lives there. the state needs defending on here a lot.

[TheMojoPin]

You may have to. I heard before he did so well in Boston that it will limit the delegate advantage Hillary will get from the state. She swept in western Mass.

Apparently that's the case in Missouri, too. Obama is behind overall, but he's winning 60-40 so far in St. Louis where most of the population is.

[TheMojoPin]

I guess they dragged Lou Dobbs away from his nightly feast upon a Mexican child.

[scottinnj]

MSNBC says that independents can vote in the California primaries. That's good news for Obama.

[K.C.]

i point that out every few months. falls on deaf ears. i also love that there were like 1100 republicans who voted in the primary. hilarious.

It was a convention, not a primary....1100 delegates voted...the primary is later this year.

[sailor]

I know that made me laugh my balls off.

wv is like 98.2% democratic, so huckabee might have like 12 voters.

damn, if i'd just said mccain that would have been sick!

[Freakshow]

These people (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23015871/) should not be allowed to vote next week...

[sailor]

It was a convention, not a primary....1100 delegates voted...the primary is later this year.

they keep saying caucus, but boo, that's no fun.

[PapaBear]

These people (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23015871/) should not be allowed to vote next week...
They're probably transplants. Fucking outsiders!!!

[HBox]

Hillary takes Arizona. Although I'm scared about California. MSNBC was talking to Axelrod from the Obama campaign and when he was talking about Cali it sounded a lot like damage control.

[jetdog]

Hillary is leading heavily in CA,

CNN says white and black voters favor Obama, Latino and Asian voters heavily favor clinton.

does that sound fucked up or what, didn't RnF talk about a phenomenon like this a month or so back?

[scottinnj]

It's understandable.

[hammersavage]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Bermans_count_606534.html

link references that obama may have a lead in delegates.

[HBox]

Chuck Todd had an estimate of a current delegate count. This is without Cal. 594-546 Obama.

[jetdog]

Of course fucking GA would vote for Huckabee... damn douche bags ccan't resist the God angle

[HBox]

Mojo you can go back to hating on Boston. Hillary did better in Mass than expected.

[K.C.]

Hillary takes Arizona. Although I'm scared about California. MSNBC was talking to Axelrod from the Obama campaign and when he was talking about Cali it sounded a lot like damage control.

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet....the cities are going to take forever to report. Obama should do pretty well there.

It's the same thing that's happened on an much MUCH smaller scale in Missouri. Clinton led by
15-20% most of the way....St.Louis has been coming in and her margin is down to 3%.

[HBox]

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet....the cities are going to take forever to report. Obama should do pretty well there.

It's the same thing that's happened on an much MUCH smaller scale in Missouri. Clinton led by
15-20% most of the way....St.Louis has been coming in and her margin is down to 3%.

Same thing happened when McCaskill won.

[HBox]

Edwards is still drawing 10% so far in California.

[scottinnj]

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet....the cities are going to take forever to report. Obama should do pretty well there.

It's the same thing that's happened on an much MUCH smaller scale in Missouri. Clinton led by
15-20% most of the way....St.Louis has been coming in and her margin is down to 3%.

What does that do to the delegate count?

[HBox]

MSNBC seems like it is about to bounce McCain for Obama.

Yep.

[TooLowBrow]

According to our exit polls, Obama is beating Clinton among whites, 49 percent to 43 percent, and among blacks, 81 percent to 16 percent.

How is Clinton in contention? She's overwhelmingly winning among Latinos and Asians. Two-thirds of California Latinos prefer Clinton, while three-fourths of the state’s Asians support her.

Latinos and Asians just may carry the state for her.

–CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

why dont they ever say who 'poor people' are voting for?

[scottinnj]

MSNBC seems like it is about to bounce McCain for Obama.

Yep.


They timed it well though. Side by side views of two potential opposing candidates in November.

[HBox]

why dont they ever say who 'poor people' are voting for?

Probably because exit pollers don't want to ask those kind of questions.

And Obama just backhandedly bashed Bush on disaster managing in a REALLY hard way.

[epo]

Edwards is still drawing 10% so far in California.

That would be the early mail-in vote.

[HBox]

And Obama takes Colorado.

[K.C.]

Edwards is still drawing 10% so far in California.

Is it the pre-voting/absentee???? They said something like 2 million were cast over the last few months.

That's the only thing I can figure.

[scottinnj]

How did Arizona go for Clinton?

[K.C.]

How did Arizona go for Clinton?

Latinos.

[scottinnj]

Latinos.

Ay Chiwawa!

[K.C.]

Is it the pre-voting/absentee???? They said something like 2 million were cast over the last few months.

That's the only thing I can figure.

Giuliani is drawing 10% of the vote on the Republican side, too....the write-ins will be what sinks Obama and Romney in that state respectively, if they both lose.

[HBox]

Olberman and Matthews just hinted they are already close to calling California.

[K.C.]

Olberman and Matthews just hinted they are already close to calling California.

They called it...big blow to Obama, but the difference maker will be the margin of victory and the delegate difference after tonight.

[MikeB]

Olberman and Matthews just hinted they are already close to calling California.

ABC said Clintons got it.


If Obama is the nom he is going to get killed by McCain for the lobbyist reform crap he pulled.

[ShowerBench]

They called it...big blow to Obama, but the difference maker will be the margin of victory and the delegate difference after tonight.

Stunning, I thought Obama had that one in the bag. Zogby had him up by 13 points in CA today.

Never count out the Clinton brothers.

[HBox]

ABC said Clintons got it.


If Obama is the nom he is going to get killed by McCain for the lobbyist reform crap he pulled.

And Obama will hammer him on the Iraq War. Both Clinton and Obama will kill him on 100 year crap. They both mentioned it tonight.

[high fly]

Big ups to KC for the state by stae breakdowns and updates.

'preciate that, man..............

[ShowerBench]

And Obama will hammer him on the Iraq War. Both Clinton and Obama will kill him on 100 year crap. They both mentioned it tonight.


Obama would lose because he's "anti-war" and they don't win presidential elections (McGovern)

He will be painted as "faggy" like Kerry.

Clinton is positioned as pro defense but anti-100 years war, the place to be.

[scottinnj]

Who did win the 100 year war?

[HBox]

Obama would lose because he's "anti-war" and they don't win presidential elections (McGovern)

He will be painted as "faggy" like Kerry.

Clinton is positioned as pro defense but anti-100 years war, the place to be.

You honestly think that being against the Iraq War is a negative right now? Are you NUTS?

[high fly]

Obama would lose because he's "anti-war" and they don't win presidential elections (McGovern)


What about Nixon?

In 1968, "That" Dick Nixon patted his jacket over his inside pocket and said he had a secret plan to end the Vietnam War......

[scottinnj]

What about Nixon?

In 1968, "That" Dick Nixon patted his jacket over his inside pocket and said he had a secret plan to end the Vietnam War......

Yeah, but he caveated that with making sure he would end the war in "victory"

But he didn't factor in the Ford factor after he resigned.

[K.C.]

Stunning, I thought Obama had that one in the bag. Zogby had him up by 13 points in CA today.

Never count out the Clinton brothers.

I don't think Zogby was wrong, and it kind of shows as his numbers for the other states.

The story of California is going to be the absentee vote. It was a huge chunk of Hillary's vote, and she won a lot of them weeks ago. Plus, Edwards is going to pull 10% in the state before it's over, despite never setting foot there because of absentees.

My guess is when they break it down to actual votes cast today, Zogby's number will hold.

It's a credit to Hillary's operation for locking in so many absentee votes so early in the race in California. It may make the difference.


Obama still has a chance, and let's wait and see what the margin of victory and delegate breakdown is in the state. He will have won 14 of the 22 contests, or something like that.

But let's not be unrealistic...it's very difficult to win the Democratic nomination losing California, New York, and Massachusettes, just from a perception standpoint, if not a delegate standpoint.

[TheMojoPin]

Fuck off, Mass..

[high fly]

Yeah, but he caveated that with making sure he would end the war in "victory"

But he didn't factor in the Ford factor after he resigned.

He shied away from the word "victory," substituting "peace with honor."
By the time Ford got in (7 years after "That" Dick Nixon talked that trash in the '68 election) we had long abandoned the cause.

[thejives]

Missouri!!!

Holy shit... if anyone lives in missouri and you voted Obama ... Thank you!

What an awesome come from behind victory.

Means nothing for delegates but it is cool to see

[high fly]

D.P.

sorry.

[JerseySean]

Looks like the Romney campaign is over. I need a job now. Anyone hiring?

[K.C.]

Fuck off, Mass..

http://www.infoplease.com/images/mov99-9.gif

"We don't vote fah dahkies n Southie, Chuckie."

[HBox]

OBAMA TAKES ALASKA.

Just give him the nom people!

[thejives]

So goes Alaska.

So goes the nation.

[ShowerBench]

You honestly think that being against the Iraq War is a negative right now? Are you NUTS?

"Anti war" candidates ALWAYS lose presidential elections. "Anti war" is cast as unpatriotic, and it's always successful.

In fact, the polling shows Clinton thrashing Obama on the "commander in chief" question (who would be a better commander in chief) in the exit polls tonight among DEMOCRATS.

An ABC poll had her up 8 points on the IRAQ question among Democrats this week, too, and that was after the debate in which Iraq was discussed extensively.

That's why she won't pull a Kerry and apologize for the Resolution vote. She wants to avoid the "anti war" label, keep the "patriotic" label, and place McCain on the extreme end of insane warmonger.

[HBox]

It looks good for Obama coming out of tonight with more delegates. It will be very close no matter what but that is VERY good despite California.

[HBox]

"Anti war" candidates ALWAYS lose presidential elections. "Anti war" is cast as unpatriotic, and it's always successful.

In fact, the polling shows Clinton thrashing Obama on the "commander in chief" question (who would be a better commander in chief) in the exit polls tonight among DEMOCRATS.

An ABC poll had her up 8 points on the IRAQ question among Democrats this week, too, and that was after the debate in which Iraq was discussed extensively.

That's why she won't pull a Kerry and apologize for the Resolution vote. She wants to avoid the "anti war" label, keep the "patriotic" label, and place McCain on the extreme end of insane warmonger.

Then how do you explain November 06.

[K.C.]

Well, from here, Obama has some favorable matchups:

Feb. 9th
-Louisiana
-Nebraska
-Virgin Islands
-Washington

Feb 10th
-Washington caucus (part of their delegation)

Feb 12th
-D.C.
-Maryland
-Virginia

Feb 19th
-Hawaii
-Washington primary (other part of their delegation)
-Wisconsin

Obama should play well in Louisiana, Nebraska strikes me as a similar electorate to Oklahoma, so I'd expect Hillary to pull that out. Nobody will campaign in the Virgin Islands, so it doesn't matter. Washington will be the next battle ground.

On Feb 12th, Obama should sweep through those three. If Hillary will try to pick off Maryland in Virginia, but unless she gets an enormous bounce off of tonight, those are set up for Obama.

Obama should then cruise to Hawaii, where he lived for a time. Both will head back to Washington for Part II of that. Wisconsin is similar to Iowa in that the Democrats are very liberal, but it's also very white. So we'll see how Obama plays straight up vs. Hillary...that will be another battleground.



This race should continue at least through PA, Texas, and Ohio.

[ShowerBench]

Then how do you explain November 06.

I said strictly presidential elections where the national security issue looms larger than it does in midterms.

I've never heard Obama talk about 9/11 without a caveat. Along the lines of, "It was a traumatic day, but...."

McCain will exploit Obama's weakness on national security. He'll ask if someone who only served in the Senate for a year before running is ready to protect the country and he can take the focus off the economy or at least split it with national defense. If Democrats have a candidate who doesn't have to play defense on that issue, which will be big especially with McCain as the candidate, they will kill on the economy, health care, etc.

[K.C.]

Well, to sum up tonight.


On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, not John McCain, delivered the final death blow to Romney and with him, Rush, Hannity, 'No-Spin' Ann Coulter (per O'Reilly), and that whole ilk.

It's kind of appropriate it ended that way....they all sandbagged Huckabee from the beginning, and they basically sabotaged his campaign by trying to prop up Fred Thompson's corpse in South Carolina. All that accomplished was:
1) Give McCain the win that spring-boarded him into Florida, and thus the nomination.
2) Force the Christian Conservative base to choose between their candidate and their talk radio heroes....they chose their candidate.



The Democratic side is like a WWE Pay-Per-View....the build was to an Obama win all over the last week. Obama dominates early, Hillary hit Obama with the brass knucks (California's absentee votes) for the quick pin to retain her title.

[HBox]

I said strictly presidential elections where the national security issue looms larger than it does in midterms.

I've never heard Obama talk about 9/11 without a caveat. Along the lines of, "It was a traumatic day, but...."

McCain will exploit Obama's weakness on national security. He'll ask if someone who only served in the Senate for a year before running is ready to protect the country and he can take the focus off the economy or at least split it with national defense. If Democrats have a candidate who doesn't have to play defense on that issue, which will be big especially with McCain as the candidate, they will kill on the economy, health care, etc.

Right now if you have a candidate who wants to get out of Iraq and someone who doesn't care how long we stay there the candidate who wants to get out wins the issue. Period. I don't care how Obama compares to Hillary.

And its academic because the economy is the big issue. And if you think the REPUBLICANS will kill on the economy and HEALTH CARE of all things, WHAT? WHAT?

[thejives]

The Democratic side is like a WWE Pay-Per-View....the build was to an Obama win all over the last week. Obama dominates early, Hillary hit Obama with the brass knucks (California's absentee votes) for the quick pin to retain her title.

I dunno if Hillary retains her title. She wins less states than Obama by closer margins than Obama. She may be behind in the delegate count. And staring down the barrel of upcoming primaries with less money she's accepting FOX News debates to try and grab free air time.

She's acting like a challenger already.

Meanwhile, Obama looks more presidential by the minute.

[scottinnj]

So goes Alaska.

So goes the nation.

Alaskans are smart. They have the oil and are hoarding it from the rest of us.

[ShowerBench]

There was a story out today that Zogby's CA polling analyst is an Obama superdelegate so that could be a factor.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/114235/8328

"The Battle for Superdelegates Heats Up in D.C."

"James Zogby is firmly in the Obama camp -- so much so that he's worked other superdelegates on behalf of the Obama campaign. The president of the Arab American Institute says he first heard Obama speak at the 2004 convention, when Obama burst onto the national political stage, and he was impressed.

And then in February 2006, Obama spoke at a DNC meeting, giving "a thoughtful discourse on the idea of cynicism, and talked about how we need to install idealism in politics." That was enough for Zogby, who gave Obama workers his phone number. Zogby became an official supporter this past summer.

Zogby has made at least a couple of dozen calls to other superdelegates to rally support for Obama. He's had some success winning over a few..."

I looked up the Zogbys on Wikipedia and found this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Zogby

"(James) Zogby is also a senior analyst with the polling firm Zogby International, founded and managed by his brother John Zogby, and is a prominent lecturer and scholar on Middle East issues..."

So, it's interesting to note that one of the senior analysts with Zogby Polling -- the pollster who is predicting big Obama wins for today -- is also a major Obama superdelegate.

There is no proof, ofcourse, of any bias resulting from this apparent juxtaposition, but this is nevertheless an interesting part of today's picture.

[scottinnj]

Right now if you have a candidate who wants to get out of Iraq and someone who doesn't care how long we stay there the candidate who wants to get out wins the issue. Period. I don't care how Obama compares to Hillary.

And its academic because the economy is the big issue. And if you think the REPUBLICANS will kill on the economy and HEALTH CARE of all things, WHAT? WHAT?

If Hillary gets the nod from the Dems, the Republicans will bring up HillaryCare of 1992. A lot of Democrats are voting for Obama and Edwards (still) because they believe Obama can beat the Republicans on health care, and Hillary will be a punching bag on that issue.

[K.C.]

I dunno if Hillary retains her title. She wins less states than Obama by closer margins than Obama. She may be behind in the delegate count. And staring down the barrel of upcoming primaries with less money she's accepting FOX News debates to try and grab free air time.

Nah, Hillary comes out ahead tonight...not by much, but she'll have a delegate lead at the end of the night.

But she's definitely the heel in this race. And she knows it from her 'favorable/unfavorable' ratings, so she'll use whatever tactic or strategy she needs.



The things, I'm curious about in one sense, but dreading in another, is that if Obama edges her out by a razor thin delegate margin to win this thing, will she try and rip the party apart by pushing hard to get the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated at the convention in order to put her over the top.

That's would be where you find out what the Clintons value more....the greater good of their ideas and their party, or winning at all costs.

[scottinnj]

Fantastic night for Obama. He won more states and kept up in the delegate count. Hillary was counting on tonight to be the deathblow to all her opponents.

Obama is still surging in the polls while Hillary is either holding her own or losing ground, and tonight' success will hopefully put people scared of voting for Obama for fear of wasting their vote reconsider and go for it.

[ShowerBench]

And its academic because the economy is the big issue. And if you think the REPUBLICANS will kill on the economy and HEALTH CARE of all things, WHAT? WHAT?

No I said the Democrat will kill on the economy, are ya kiddin?

And that will be the ONLY issue if the "unpatriotic/anti-war" card can't be played on the national security front.

[HBox]

No I said the Democrat will kill on the economy, are ya kiddin?

And that will be the ONLY issue if the "unpatriotic/anti-war" card can't be played on the national security front.

Ok, because that REALLY perplexed me.

[ShowerBench]

That's would be where you find out what the Clintons value more....the greater good of their ideas and their party, or winning at all costs.

Or "counting every vote." Florida voters aren't going to want to be left out of the equation and if they are Obama can say seeya to that state. He's not going to want to be in the position of trying to pretend their votes don't count. People take that pretty seriously - they get off work, they get up early to make it to the polls.

They will win the argument because it will come down to "the party" or "Barack Obama" versus "voters."

[ShowerBench]

Ok, because that REALLY perplexed me.

haha, yeah I would think so.

[epo]

Obama is winning the night 13-9 going into New Mexico. After the manner in which he brilliantly learned from the Clintons about "setting expectations" (i.e.: a tie is a win) he now has momentum, money and overall popular vote delegates in his favor. Also the upcoming schedule of states is in his favor.

He is now the frontrunner.

[epo]

Or "counting every vote." Florida voters aren't going to want to be left out of the equation and if they are Obama can say seeya to that state. He's not going to want to be in the position of trying to pretend their votes don't count. People take that pretty seriously - they get off work, they get up early to make it to the polls.

They will win the argument because it will come down to "the party" or "Barack Obama" versus "voters."

You forget that there is a rift in the party between the Clintons and the party chair. Howard Dean set the rules for the states and Michigan/Florida ignored those rules. And the Clintons, who shit on Dean in 2004/5, and then ignored his directive and basically campaigned in both states, are no friends of Dean, so why would he bend the rules for them?

Answer: He won't.

[Dude!]

will she try and rip the party apart by pushing hard to get the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated at the convention in order to put her over the top.

if the clintons pull this stunt to deny a black man the normination there will be a race war in the democratic party

i also learned tonight that hispanics apparently don't vote for blacks

the racial dynamics in this are fantastic

[high fly]

"Anti war" candidates ALWAYS lose presidential elections. "Anti war" is cast as unpatriotic, and it's always successful.


I already gave the example of Nixon in '68 claiming he had a secret plan to end the war in Vietnam.

Another successful antiwar campaign was that of Woodrow Wilson....

[high fly]

THIS JUST IN!

RON PAUL DECLARED THE WINNER IN EVERY INTERNET POLL IN EVERY CONTESTED STATE!!!

[K.C.]

Or "counting every vote." Florida voters aren't going to want to be left out of the equation and if they are Obama can say seeya to that state. He's not going to want to be in the position of trying to pretend their votes don't count. People take that pretty seriously - they get off work, they get up early to make it to the polls.

They will win the argument because it will come down to "the party" or "Barack Obama" versus "voters."

That's not how it went down. First, Obama and Edwards' names weren't even on the ballot in Michigan...there was something like 30 or 40% 'Uncommitted' there, so that's hardly making every vote count. Michigan was a complete joke of an election.

Second, as far as Florida goes, Hillary basically agreed to abide by the rules of the DNC, and then changed her mind when she knew she'd win handily there and decided she would make a spectacle out of Florida.

If you want to make the 'caring about the voters' argument, then talk about Dennis Kucinich. He was the only person running, from the beginning, who said it was stupid and unfair to exclude states for moving up their primaries.

She approached this in an opportunist fashion to grab headlines. If the polls has shown Obama showing strength in those states originally, she'd of been patting Dean on the back for barring them from the convention.


And when people with your campaign try to sue the Nevada Caucus system to prevent casino workers from getting caucus sites near where they work to increase your odds of winning...you don't care about every vote counting.

[Snacks]

If Hillary gets the nod from the Dems, the Republicans will bring up HillaryCare of 1992. A lot of Democrats are voting for Obama and Edwards (still) because they believe Obama can beat the Republicans on health care, and Hillary will be a punching bag on that issue.

I agree with this 100%. Im voting for Obama because I think he can win. I like Hillary but the Republican smear machine knows what they are doing. They know that 40-45% of the country will not vote for her no matter what and they will work on the rest. You would think a Dem would and should win no matter what this election, because of the past 8 years. But if Hillary is the nom I think its more likely the Dems lose!

[Bulldogcakes]

I just love headlines like this


From MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23019673/)

Clinton wins California, most other big states
But party’s delegate rules mean Democratic race to end up virtually tied

Translation-HILLARY THE BIG WINNER LAST NIGHT
but due to some obscure, archane rule she hasn't won everything yet. but she will.

Its not even accurate. IL is a big state and the Dems don't have a winner take all system, so the margins are more important than the names of the states.

Anyway, it goes on to say they think Obama has a slim lead in the delegates. THAT is the big story if they can confirm it.

[TeeBone]

Obama's speech last night was particularly BLACKY compared to his previous deludes into being an orator. Moreover; his normal frustrated and mind-numbing idea of 'Hope and change' was underscored by his constant reminder that he is a 'Brother's-Brother.' It is embarrassing to watch him speak anymore. He goes from talking like the whitest guy I know, to talking like the blackest guy I never want to know in a matter of seconds. I thought at any moment last night he was either going to ask the crowd if, "...they smell what Barack is cookin'," or break into the Ezekiel 25:17 speech from Pulp Fiction. I hope Obama beats Hillary but c'mon, do you really want this clown as our President?

[Snacks]

Obama's speech last night was particularly BLACKY compared to his previous deludes into being an orator. Moreover; his normal frustrated and mind-numbing idea of 'Hope and change' was underscored by his constant reminder that he is a 'Brother's-Brother.' It is embarrassing to watch him speak anymore. He goes from talking like the whitest guy I know, to talking like the blackest guy I never want to know in a matter of seconds. I thought at any moment last night he was either going to ask the crowd if, "...they smell what Barack is cookin'," or break into the Ezekiel 25:17 speech from Pulp Fiction. I hope Obama beats Hillary but c'mon, do you really want this clown as our President?

Wow thats racist. Yes I want him to be president. He has never sounded blacky (or as you mean, ghetto) He sounds better then any other person talking and much more educated then the douche we have now.

[sailor]

deludes?

[TeeBone]

Wow thats racist.

Relax, that wasn't racist.

[epo]

Relax, that wasn't racist.

Don't delude yourself, that was an incredibly racist post.

[K.C.]

I just love headlines like this


From MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23019673/)



Translation-HILLARY THE BIG WINNER LAST NIGHT
but due to some obscure, archane rule she hasn't won everything yet. but she will.

Its not even accurate. IL is a big state and the Dems don't have a winner take all system, so the margins are more important than the names of the states.

Anyway, it goes on to say they think Obama has a slim lead in the delegates. THAT is the big story if they can confirm it.


Kind of surprising its coming from MSNBC....they hate Hillary more than FOX.


For the record, Hillary will be ahead by about 80 delegates when this is over, but Obama narrowly won the day with about 20 more delegates.

Super delegates are her margin of victory right now.

[TheMojoPin]

Don't delude yourself, that was an incredibly racist post.

I don't think he was being racist...he's just desperate to be contrary.

[ShowerBench]

And when people with your campaign try to sue the Nevada Caucus system to prevent casino workers from getting caucus sites near where they work to increase your odds of winning...you don't care about every vote counting.

That wasn't directed by the Clinton campaign, and the fact is, the casino workers had opportunities to vote that OTHER professions didn't, the basis for the teachers' suit. It should have been all or none. What if the "casino workers" had been some other profession? The fact that their profession is more sympathetic than most so therefore should have a better chance to caucus than other workers is a dangerous premise, and anti-democratic.

[ShowerBench]

if the clintons pull this stunt to deny a black man the normination there will be a race war in the democratic party

i also learned tonight that hispanics apparently don't vote for blacks

the racial dynamics in this are fantastic

I don't agree with that. It was ugly between Jesse Jackson and Clinton and they mended the rift. The Obama question would have to be answered though, as in what place would he have in a Clinton administration. If he wanted it. They wouldn't be able to swat him away like a fly a la Jackson.

But I haven't seen much evidence that blacks as a voting bloc stick to the identity politics they practice in primaries like these if it isn't pragmatic.

[GonzoStyle]

If Obama is elected I hope he will oversee a proper dvd transfer of Blackula, that movie deserves a special edition and crisp transfer, its a fuckin crime!!!

[A.J.]

It was ugly between Jesse Jackson and Clinton and they mended the rift.

Indeed. Jesse even served as Clinton's "spiritual advisor" during the heady Lewinsky scandal days.

[Zorro]

Indeed. Jesse even served as Clinton's "spiritual advisor" during the heady Lewinsky scandal days.

I long for the Monica Lewinsky days... I miss that little chubby bunny

[high fly]

Just you guys remember to not say anything when you hear "B-b-b-b-but Bush" arguments 8 years from now.






I didn't get to hear as much right-wing radio today as I would have liked, but what I heard was highly entertaining.

Glenn Beck was losing his mind in the studio, reduced to making chirping noises between the sobs and trying to figure out how to disappear onto some desert island.

Shawn Manatee was reading post-Watergate "Dutch" Reagan, talking about those all important "core values" and failing to notice that a lot of what Manatee was reading by "Dutch" Reagan then was completely contradicted by what "Dutch" Reagan did once he got into office.

Mark Levin was also over the edge, just ranting on and on, his voice mostly in that whiny soprano register, complaining that everyone had pinched from his blog on National Review Online or something. Oh I would have paid to watch his performance earlier today!


What do we have, what, nine months to go of hearing their sour grapes?

TEE HEE HEE HEEE!
Then, ohhhh, around the middle of October we get to hear them flip flop and decide that MccAin is a conservative after all!

[K.C.]

That wasn't directed by the Clinton campaign.

Come on, brah...let's not be naive.

[scottinnj]

He shied away from the word "victory," substituting "peace with honor."
By the time Ford got in (7 years after "That" Dick Nixon talked that trash in the '68 election) we had long abandoned the cause.

Yeah, that's what I meant. I was way too tired by then and just kept pushing on. Did you notice the "factored in the Ford factor" snafu? Oh boy!

By 3 am my posts looked like this:


a;ioiwo0988vanvlkjejsdkdjfdlsksdggjsdaklafnvjds!!! !

[high fly]

Yeah, well, since then I came up with Woodrow Wilson.

Since I was challenging a universal statement, all I needed was one example to defeat it anyways.
I believe Wilson was elected partially because people thought he was more likely to keep us out of WW I than his opponent.


Right now I thing someone who is pro-war on terrorists but against the fiasco in Iraq will reflect the opinion of the overwhelming majority of the people.

[Zorro]

Right now I thing(k) someone who is pro-war on terrorists but against the fiasco in Iraq will reflect the opinion of the overwhelming majority of the people.

Since when did the opinion of the overwhelming majority count?

[high fly]

Since when did the opinion of the overwhelming majority count?


2006.



How soon they forget.....

[epo]

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