South Carolina Dem. Primary (Sat) & Florida Rep. Primary (Tue)

[K.C.]

We've done individual threads for the others...might as well do one for these two.

South Carolina
It goes without saying that Obama has to win, and he's expected to win big. If Hillary comes in a close second, it'll be spun as despite having a large black voting block, he only barely
won. If he loses, he's finished.

As of right now, though...he appears to be in line to win big. That would suggest Hillary's support waned there. Now, some of the polls today suggested there could be a race between Hillary and Edwards for second place. Tomorrow's polls should go a long way in determing whether it was just an abberation, or there's been a legitimate surge for Edwards in SC. If so, she needs to hold him off for several reasons.

1) A third place finish suggests that the negative politics didn't work and people are rebelling against it.

2) It makes Edwards viable again, which is another whole problem. I've been trying to figure out his game, and I think I can nail it now:

Edwards draws a lot of poor, working, and middle-class, white, sometimes unionized support. If he drops out, regardless of who he endorses (which would likely be Obama), those votes will probably trend back towards Hillary, especially the union ones. Hillary would never offer him a VP spot. Obama might consider it, but again, Edwards doesn't really bring anything to the table in terms of geographic strategy, so it'd be stupid for him to do it.

So as long as he keeps drawing 15-20% in most of these primaries nationwide, he'll stay in the race, because it will mean he's picking up delegates.

And his goal, is that if he can't win, he's hoping that Hillary doesn't hit the 50% threshold for delegates, so it will be a brokered convention, and he can go with his delegates to the convention, throw them all behind Obama in exchange for the VP spot, and get on the ticket.

He needs to be on the ticket, or he's pretty much done as a national political figure, and he knows this.

So remaining viable enough to keep getting 15-20% is a huge deal for him.

[K.C.]

Florida

It's looking more and more likely that Romney is going to run away here. He's surged in the polls, and was the obvious beneficiary of Thompson's withdraw.

McCain seems to have stalled for some reason, and people just gave up on Rudy.

Huckabee's support is also taking a hit.


The Florida debate on NBC tonight was won fairly easily by Romney which can only help him there.

So it looks to me like Romney will take it.

McCain's not finished, though...Rudy will likely drop out if he runs third, and my guess is Rudy would throw his support, or even if he doesn't officially endorse, Rudy's supporters will jump on McCain.

So Super Tuesday will be a battle. If McCain does pull it off, this thing is heavily in his favor. And if Rudy works the upset, all bets are off and it becomes a geographical race on Super Tuesday with a strong likelihood of a brokered convention.

[epo]

Most think Obama will win South Carolina, but the key to me will be how his team spins the win.

Will they point out that Hillary's people said the race is about delegates and now he has "more delegates"? Then couple that with an "America is interested in the politics of change" message.

That will be the telling sign for me whether Obama is ready for the big dance.

[TheMojoPin]

I really appreciate these threads and analysis, KC. Great stuff! Thanks!

[ToddEVF]

should I be the South Carolina correspondent for Saturday? I got nothing better to do

[PapaBear]

I'm still confused about something. Edwards represents SC. Now, I can see why he didn't help Kerry in SC last time. Though his district voted him into the Senate, it's still mostly a Red state. But... All the polls I've seen show him in third for the Democratic Primary. How can someone who gets elected by people in SC, be so unpopular there, even among people of his own party?

[K.C.]

I'm still confused about something. Edwards represents SC. Now, I can see why he didn't help Kerry in SC last time. Though his district voted him into the Senate, it's still mostly a Red state. But... All the polls I've seen show him in third for the Democratic Primary. How can someone who gets elected by people in SC, be so unpopular there, even among people of his own party?

He represented North Carolina.

He was born in South Carolina, but moved at a young age to NC.

He did, however, win the state in the '04 primary. He's gained in the polls in the last few days, but there's a few reasons why he's not polling as well this year:

1) Obama is absorbing an enormous portion of the black vote in SC, which is a huge factor in the state. (Clyburn, the very influential black congressman endorsed Edwards in '04, I believe...he's backing Obama this time).
2) Bill Clinton is still enormously popular among Southern Democrats, so Edwards being born there, and from a neighboring state doesn't have as much an impact as it normally would.
3) Momentum
4) The media have written him out of the race, and tried to keep it solely down to Clinton vs. Obama
5) Money...he easily has the least of the three.

That said, he's risen a bit in the polls...so we'll see what happens.

[K.C.]

Edwards represents SC. Now, I can see why he didn't help Kerry in SC last time.

Kerry did pick Edwards, because he thought Edwards might be able to deliver North Carolina, or make Kerry viable in some Southern states.

The problem with Edwards in North Carolina, and the reason he didn't run for re-election in the Senate is:

-Between 2000 and 2004, the many Christian voters formed coalitions around single issues and changed the landscape of Southern politics making it difficult for Democrats of that time to carry weight without being pro-life, anti-gay, etc.

-Edwards ran as something of a conservative Democrat when he got elected in the late '90s, but when he got to the Senate, voted pretty liberally. His politics have changed since then, and it was widely considered a fact that had he ran for re-election in 2004, he would have lost his Senate seat, because his politics no longer agreed with his state.



It's a similar comparison to Al Gore and how he lost Tennessee to George Bush in 2000...it was because Gore's politics had changed considerably since his Senate days, as did what voters were looking for in 2000, as opposed to the 80s when Gore was in the Senate.

[PapaBear]

Damn. I could have sworn it was SC. Then again... I don't follow much about him. He looks way too much like Sam Neill in "Omen III: The Final Conflict". As bad as that movie was, it still has me convinced that Edwards may be the spawn of Satan.

http://www.fox.co.uk/content/fox_films/10828/images/HE_Omen3.jpghttp://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/edwards_convention_5.jpg

[K.C.]

Zogby Poll is out for today (Three day tracking)

Obama - 38%
Clinton - 25%
Edwards - 21%


So the Edwards bounce appears to be real...I would expect that number to close in even closer in tomorrow's poll, and be a dead heat between Clinton and Edwards for second.

Could be very interesting on Saturday...


P.S: I'm typing this from the Opera browser on Wii...this thing is pretty functional if you go out and buy the Logitech keyboard that's compatible with it (I think it was like $15).

[Zorro]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/25/kerry-blasts-bill-clinton-for-abusing-truth/

WASHINGTON (CNN) — John Kerry, the Democratic Party's 2004 nominee for president, took aim at Bill Clinton Friday, telling the National Journal the former president does "not have a license to abuse the truth."

[CruelCircus]

FloridaMcCain's not finished, though...Rudy will likely drop out if he runs third, and my guess is Rudy would throw his support, or even if he doesn't officially endorse, Rudy's supporters will jump on McCain.
I would imagine that any candidate who stays in through Florida, would hang on through Super Tuesday. It's only one extra week for 22 more states, right? If you hung in there this long, why drop out right before 1000 delegates go up for grabs? Esp. with Rudy, with that one more week he can try and stake out a big claim in the Northeast. (Though I know his NY/NJ polls are trending down.)

[K.C.]

I would imagine that any candidate who stays in through Florida, would hang on through Super Tuesday. It's only one extra week for 22 more states, right? If you hung in there this long, why drop out right before 1000 delegates go up for grabs? Esp. with Rudy, with that one more week he can try and stake out a big claim in the Northeast. (Though I know his NY/NJ polls are trending down.)

Well, in most cases you would be right, but Rudy's case is a little different in that if he loses Florida, there is a very likely chance he'll lose New York as well.

And that would be the ultimate embarassment for him.

"Mayor 9/11 loses home state"

It would do a lot of damage to him if he had any future aspirations, and it would make him unviable as a potential GOP VP candidate.

So if the perception is, next week, that he's going to lose New York, or stands a significant chance of it, I can't imagine him staying in.

[K.C.]

Well the moment of truth is here.

Here's the themes that the media seems to be hitting on:
-The Democrats have already hit in-state record turnout, and beat the Republican turnout again.
-Edwards is having a late surge on the ground
-Hillary Clinton is not in South Carolina tonight...she's already moved on to Tennessee
-The Obama camp still expects a sizeable victory, but has no plan as of yet for where they are heading next.
-Edwards is beating Hillary among white voters today....Obama's only pulling 10% of them
-Obama's making up the difference with overwhelming black support.


Two things to keep in mind:
#1 - 16% were undecided in the last poll...the media seems to be hinting at the fact that a lot of those could break Edwards' way given his ties there, and his clear victory in the debate earlier this week.
#2 - Even if Edwards pulled EVERY undecided voter, he still mathematically shouldn't beat Obama here. If Obama were to lose tonight, it would be a monumental failure of polling, much worse than New Hampshire, and the whole 'are people switching in the voting booth at the last moment because of race' issue would become a big story, whether it's true or not.

My prediction:
Obama - 45%
Edwards - 29%
Clinton - 26%

[scottinnj]

What time do the polls close in SC tonight?

[PhilDeez]

7pm

[scottinnj]

Wow, Obama won big. 7:10 pm and CNN is calling it already.

Wouldn't it be great if Edwards beat Hillary for second?

[donnie_darko]

can't wait for the actual numbers.
if edwards tops hill i'd be really happy.

[scottinnj]

if edwards tops hill i'd be really happy.

Me too. For nothing else but spite. She really went dirty with Barack this go round, and being an outside observer, was amused by the reactions of Democrats to Senator Clinton and her husband going as negative as they did towards Obama.
All I can say is: Welcome to our world. We told you those two were political scumbags.
And it'll get worse with this wide a defeat in South Carolina. They will be pulling out all the stops for Super Tuesday.

[K.C.]

Obama in a rout.

The 2nd place finish is very important to the Clinton team. If they finish 2nd, they can focus on the spin battle between them and the Obama camp about why he won by such a large margin.

If Edwards takes 2nd, the Clintons have to explain how they came in 3rd place, and it throws their whole gameplan off.

Overall, this is a good omen for Obama. I think he needs to focus heavily on California over the next week. He needs that to help offset Hillary's inevitable strength in the Northeast corridor.

[scottinnj]

Obama in a rout.




21% above Hillary so far (Drudge) Unbelievably cool.

Your comment on California rings true. If Obama can get blacks in LA and Oakland to turn out for him in numbers like South Carolina, he has a damn good chance of winning California. And wouldn't that be the cat's meow? Or bee's knees?

[K.C.]

21% above Hillary so far (Drudge) Unbelievably cool.

Your comment on California rings true. If Obama can get blacks in LA and Oakland to turn out for him in numbers like South Carolina, he has a damn good chance of winning California. And wouldn't that be the cat's meow? Or bee's knees?

Not necessarily...if he can't improve on only geting 1 of 4, or 1 of 5 white voters, he's screwed everywhere including California.

Now, everywhere else is not like South Carolina...that's one of the most conservative states in the country.

So he should do significantly better. Still, a lot of his future success is locked in to who wins the spin game over the next few days. The Clintons will spin it as a 'Obama's black, and Edwards was born here' for them not doing better...to some degree, there's validity there...Obama has to make the case he won because voters unified behind him in desire to see change...there's validity there as well.

So I'd say California is the good bell-weather of how meaningful this victory was for Obama. If he pulls to within striking distance in the polls, then people are backlashing against the Clintons.

[K.C.]

Biggest News of the Night: Kucinich beating Gravel 91-27 despite having dropped out.

Come on, Gravel!....Rally for a strong 4th place!

[sailor]

Wow, Obama won big. 7:10 pm and CNN is calling it already.

Wouldn't it be great if Edwards beat Hillary for second?

with their polling they can pretty much call most contests before the polls even close.

[K.C.]

Russert just said on MSNBC that the exit polling says this should be anywhere from a 25-30% victory for Obama in SC.

He won 84% of blacks and 25% of whites...and something like 6 of the 30 latinos that actually live in that state.

There are no asians.

[scottinnj]

Not necessarily...if he can't improve on only geting 1 of 4, or 1 of 5 white voters, he's screwed everywhere including California.

Now, everywhere else is not like South Carolina...that's one of the most conservative states in the country.

So he should do significantly better. Still, a lot of his future success is locked in to who wins the spin game over the next few days. The Clintons will spin it as a 'Obama's black, and Edwards was born here' for them not doing better...to some degree, there's validity there...Obama has to make the case he won because voters unified behind him in desire to see change...there's validity there as well.

So I'd say California is the good bell-weather of how meaningful this victory was for Obama. If he pulls to within striking distance in the polls, then people are backlashing against the Clintons.

My thinking on this is with Edwards still in the race for Super Tuesday. With him in, he can pull enough of the white voters away from Hillary to have Obama pull it off.

[K.C.]

My thinking on this is with Edwards still in the race for Super Tuesday. With him in, he can pull enough of the white voters away from Hillary to have Obama pull it off.

Not sure about that....South Carolina has the second highest concentration of black voters in the country, per electorate. It's 50% of the Democratic vote there.

Only Georgia is a little bit higher.


Everywhere else is significantly less, and even though Edwards is staying in, he's never really polled higher than 9-10% in California, New York, etc....the big delegate states. It'd be hard to see him get a bounce this late.

So Obama's got a lot of work to do...never mind the fact that I'm sure that Bill & Hillary will be criss-crossing the country seperately to cover more ground.

That said, the margin of victory tonight gives him a lot of momentum going forward.

The polls generally suggest Hillary leads by between 10-12% in California, although Rasmussen recently had it as low as 5%. I'd be curious to see how the initial polling is after tonight.

The other thing to account for is this; Obama's getting enough support in New York right now where he'll get some delegates out of it. At last check, Hillary was getting no traction in Obama's state of Illinois. So that's a small delegate victory for him .

[scottinnj]

I'll defer to you on this, K.C. So far you have been dead on. I gotta tell you, you are a great asset to this board. I'm just hoping Obama can pull it out.

[scottinnj]

http://i121.photobucket.com/albums/o217/themarshal/ItsaRout.png

[BoondockSaint]

Another fantastic speech by Obama.

[scottinnj]

He needs to keep making speeches like that going into Super Tuesday. This one is fantastic, but by Feb 5th it will have been picked apart by the pundits its initial power will be gone.

[K.C.]

First off, two great stats for the night:

-Democratic primary turnout doubled from 2004 from 250,000+ to 500,000+
-Barack Obama beat John McCain and Mike Huckabee combined in total votes.

Remember...this is South Carolina...this is about as deep in red country as you can get, and the Dems are playing very well. Not a good omen for the GOP in the general election.



Now, the reason I'm so reluctant to get too optimistic about tonight is Hillary Clinton's been declared dead already once this primary season...I'm not about to do it again.

If they go down, they will go down scratching and clawing all the way, and try to burn the entire party to the ground with them.



Now, I'm sure this will change in the coming days as polls come out, but Hillary held a lead in every Super Tuesday state except Illinois and Georgia according polling (although a lot of it is outdated).

So my inclination is that California is the bell-weather. If Obama can win there, he'll win the nomination.

[scottinnj]

First off, two great stats for the night:

-Democratic primary turnout doubled from 2004 from 250,000+ to 500,000+
-Barack Obama beat John McCain and Mike Huckabee combined in total votes.





That's how I started the Super Tuesday thread. Sorry, I couldn't wait. But one thing I have been seeing in the Dem primaries, no matter where they have been is turnout, turnout, turnout.

My party is doomed in November. Democrats are committed and angry, and want a change. They will be pulling out all the stops come November.

[DiabloSammich]

That's how I started the Super Tuesday thread. Sorry, I couldn't wait. But one thing I have been seeing in the Dem primaries, no matter where they have been is turnout, turnout, turnout.

My party is doomed in November. Democrats are committed and angry, and want a change. They will be pulling out all the stops come November.



If their "candidate" is not represented come election time, i.e. Hillary or Obama, do they then lose a large percentage of the democrats out of spite, or does either one of them have the strength to get the other candidate's contingent to rally behind them on the way to the White House?

[K.C.]

If their "candidate" is not represented come election time, i.e. Hillary or Obama, do they then lose a large percentage of the democrats out of spite, or does either one of them have the strength to get the other candidate's contingent to rally behind them on the way to the White House?

That's a good question that I've been trying to figure out.

At the end of the day, if Hillary Clinton wins, she'll lose some of the independents and probably demoralize the black vote in a lot of places, given the tone of the election.

However, I don't think there's a risk of defection in the black vote...they just won't turn out for her. Although time heals all wounds, so what pisses them off in March may be forgotten in November.


For Obama, I think you lose a segment of the white vote, because there are people who are racially motivated when they vote. But what you get is a larger draw from independents, republicans, and a larger turnout in black communities.

The wild card for him, may be latinos. He doesn't do particularly well with them, which is why, if you paid attention he made sure to throw in the story about fighting for Latino workers on the streets of Chicago. Latino voters jump in fairly sizeable margins from party to party, especially in states like Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona. He could potentially lose them, to a moderate if McCain, if he doesn't figure out why they don't like him.



But the short answer is I don't think it's anymore than any candidate loses in a fiercely fought primary. At the end of the day, they'll unite. It would be easier to unite behind Obama, but I think they party will by in large do it since they know they're on the cusp of power.

[scottinnj]

If their "candidate" is not represented come election time, i.e. Hillary or Obama, do they then lose a large percentage of the democrats out of spite, or does either one of them have the strength to get the other candidate's contingent to rally behind them on the way to the White House?

While all the Democrats are heavily debating who to vote for in the primaries, one thing is clear: To a person, they have said "I will vote for the Democrat nominee in November, whoever it is"

And at these numbers, that's a scary thing for Republicans.

[PhilDeez]

[QUOTE=K.C.;1601567]First off, two great stats for the night:

-Democratic primary turnout doubled from 2004 from 250,000+ to 500,000+
-Barack Obama beat John McCain and Mike Huckabee combined in total votes.

Remember...this is South Carolina...this is about as deep in red country as you can get, and the Dems are playing very well. Not a good omen for the GOP in the general election.

QUOTE]

Not totally true. Last Saturday provided horrible weather conditions for SC republicans, I don't really think you can compare overall numbers. However I agree he did get out the portion of the African American vote that typically does not show.

[K.C.]

[QUOTE=K.C.;1601567]First off, two great stats for the night:

-Democratic primary turnout doubled from 2004 from 250,000+ to 500,000+
-Barack Obama beat John McCain and Mike Huckabee combined in total votes.

Remember...this is South Carolina...this is about as deep in red country as you can get, and the Dems are playing very well. Not a good omen for the GOP in the general election.

QUOTE]

Not totally true. Last Saturday provided horrible weather conditions for SC republicans, I don't really think you can compare overall numbers. However I agree he did get out the portion of the African American vote that typically does not show.

I'm not trying to suggest the Democrats are going to be competitive in South Carolina...I'm just saying that from these four early primaries, it's obvious that there's so much more juice on the Democratic side.

[ShowerBench]

Obama got 80% of the black vote and lost 75% of the white vote. That's the most important factoid coming out of the SC race.

Onto Super Tuesday.

[ShowerBench]

While all the Democrats are heavily debating who to vote for in the primaries, one thing is clear: To a person, they have said "I will vote for the Democrat nominee in November, whoever it is"

And at these numbers, that's a scary thing for Republicans.

I will too but the reality is that a number of that 75% of white voters who didn't vote for Obama in SC translates into a number who won't vote for a black man in certain states.

Obama is enjoying a media lovefest but the moment he's nominated he'll lose.

[TheMojoPin]

I will too but the reality is that a number of that 75% of white voters who didn't vote for Obama in SC translates into a number who won't vote for a black man in certain states.

Not necessarily. I still think most of those voters would still vote Democratic over Republican regardless of the candidate.

[scottinnj]

Not necessarily. I still think most of those voters would still vote Democratic over Republican regardless of the candidate.

I think so too, and this election is going to go down to get out the base, which will vote for you, and then win the independant vote.

Democrats are in a much better position to accomplish those two things, and especially if Obama is the candidate.

[Bulldogcakes]

I will too but the reality is that a number of that 75% of white voters who didn't vote for Obama in SC translates into a number who won't vote for a black man in certain states.

Obama is enjoying a media lovefest but the moment he's nominated he'll lose.

I'm not so sure of that. He's running neck and neck so far with the likely GOP nominee McCain. Plus don't underestimate how much of the GOP base hates McCain. the 28% of the country that still supports Bush thinks McCain has stabbed Bush in the back every chance he got.

Obama/McCain would be a tough choice for me, and I'm a registered Republican. I don't hate McCain for the reasons the base does, I just don't agree with him on very much. Campaign Finance, banning torture, abortion, war on terror, all of those issues I either don't give a shit about or disagree with him on. And those are his big claims to fame. The only high profile issue I've agreed with McCain on recently was immigration, and the Republican base was dead set against him on that. He's also pretty good on spending, but the president doesn't appropriate the money, the congress does. So outside of a veto here and there, its a moot point.

[ShowerBench]

Not necessarily. I still think most of those voters would still vote Democratic over Republican regardless of the candidate.

Some but not enough I think.

Losing 75% of whites in SC? Democrats?

[TheMojoPin]

Some but not enough I think.

Losing 75% of whites in SC? Democrats?

It's not like they "lost" them...they opted to vote for another Democrat. That's a long way from not voting Democrat at all. It's a pretty huge leap to assume that they wouldn't vote for Obama at all if he got the nomination. That's like assuming the people that don't vote for Hillary would all or mostly not vote for her if she got the nod. What are you basing this on? The vast majority of primary voters end up voting with their party come the national election.

[ShowerBench]

It's not like they "lost" them...they opted to vote for another Democrat. That's a long way from not voting Democrat at all. It's a pretty huge leap to assume that they wouldn't vote for Obama at all if he got the nomination. That's like assuming the people that don't vote for Hillary would all or mostly not vote for her if she got the nod. What are you basing this on? The vast majority of primary voters end up voting with their party come the national election.

If white people are voting on race I tend to think that will be the determining factor in their vote come November. Republican or stay home. I don't get it, I especially don't get it when you're talking about Democrats, but those numbers are there and pretty striking.

I don't think it goes for a majority of those voters but enough to make a difference and I don't think it's a difference the new or young voters Obama might bring in will compensate for.

[TheMojoPin]

If white people are voting on race I tend to think that will be the determining factor in their vote come November. Republican or stay home. I don't get it, I especially don't get it when you're talking about Democrats, but those numbers are there and pretty striking.

I don't think it goes for a majority of those voters but enough to make a difference and I don't think it's a difference the new or young voters Obama might bring in will compensate for.

So on the flipside, do you assume the black voters that chose Obama won't vote for Hillary if she gets the nod?

You're completely assuming that this is a "white or nothing" issue on this scale. This is hardly a pattern that that's been following the campaign.

[ShowerBench]

So on the flipside, do you assume the black voters that chose Obama won't vote for Hillary if she gets the nod?

You're completely assuming that this is a "white or nothing" issue on this scale. This is hardly a pattern that that's been following the campaign.


White or nothing for a certain portion of those who voted on race, not all. A significant enough portion, though, to make a difference in a general election. Black voters are used to voting for white candidates so I don't think it would be as pronounced on that side but there will be a number who won't show up for Clinton after this. But we're talking a fraction of a small fraction of the total there, not a similar fraction of a large majority - it won't be as hard to compensate for.

[epo]

And he delivers on cue:

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[K.C.]

White or nothing for a certain portion of those who voted on race, not all. A significant enough portion, though, to make a difference in a general election. Black voters are used to voting for white candidates so I don't think it would be as pronounced on that side but there will be a number who won't show up for Clinton after this. But we're talking a fraction of a small fraction of the total there, not a similar fraction of a large majority - it won't be as hard to compensate for.

You're making too much of the 75% thing.

You had John Edwards, who was born in the state, draw a large portion of that, and a lot of women are still behind the idea of the first woman president thing, which is why Hillary drew what she drew.

Those two inevitably were going to draw votes.

If you're going to read anything into the black/white breakdown of this, I think it's more tangible to say the opposite....that if given the choice of a black candidate, blacks will overwhelming vote for that candidate. You can point to Obama this year, and Jesse Jackson in '84 and '88. Hell, Al Sharpton did a lot better than he should have in '04 despite running a joke of a campaign.

At the end of the day, Obama won one of the whitest states in the country (Iowa) and placed 2nd in another of the whitest states in the country (New Hampshire).

So, at least on the Democratic side, I don't think it's as big a deal as you're making this out to be.


The biggest obstacle to an Obama candidacy is Latino voters. He needs to do well in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and they're voting 4-to-1 for Hillary over him, on a national level. That's a much more tangible stat then the black/white vote in a Southern state with a large black population, a favorite son, and a white woman running for the nomination.

[TheMojoPin]

You're making too much of the 75% thing.

You had John Edwards, who was born in the state, draw a large portion of that, and a lot of women are still behind the idea of the first woman president thing, which is why Hillary drew what she drew.

Those two inevitably were going to draw votes.

If you're going to read anything into the black/white breakdown of this, I think it's more tangible to say the opposite....that if given the choice of a black candidate, blacks will overwhelming vote for that candidate. You can point to Obama this year, and Jesse Jackson in '84 and '88. Hell, Al Sharpton did a lot better than he should have in '04 despite running a joke of a campaign.

At the end of the day, Obama won one of the whitest states in the country (Iowa) and placed 2nd in another of the whitest states in the country (New Hampshire).

So, at least on the Democratic side, I don't think it's as big a deal as you're making this out to be.


The biggest obstacle to an Obama candidacy is Latino voters. He needs to do well in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and they're voting 4-to-1 for Hillary over him, on a national level. That's a much more tangible stat then the black/white vote in a Southern state with a large black population, a favorite son, and a white woman running for the nomination.

Damn, I wish he could somehow get Richardson on his side ASAP.

[K.C.]

A President Like My Father (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27kennedy.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin)

[sailor]

i don't think obama would receive a significant bump from black voters come the general election since an overwhelming number of black voters vote democratic anyways. a black republican would receive a much bigger boost (if he were to win a nomination).

[donnie_darko]

wow sailor, so you're saying black people are so willing to vote for a black candidate that they'd cross party lines simply based on race?

I think it would depend on the candidate, i always thought that would be Colin Powells only chance, was if he won the republican nomination, i could see black voters eschewing their party for him... but i don't think that would typically be the case.

I do worry about white voters being willing to cross party lines to avoid a black president though.....guess only time will tell?

[sailor]

wow sailor, so you're saying black people are so willing to vote for a black candidate that they'd cross party lines simply based on race?

I think it would depend on the candidate, i always thought that would be Colin Powells only chance, was if he won the republican nomination, i could see black voters eschewing their party for him... but i don't think that would typically be the case.

I do worry about white voters being willing to cross party lines to avoid a black president though.....guess only time will tell?

i certainly do think some black voters would switch parties for a black president, just as i think some whites would switch to avoid one. whatever you think of it it's human nature. i don't have any idea what percentage of people would do this (in either direction) but i think it's unrealistic to say it wouldn't happen on some level. heck, same thing with hilary and male/female voters.

[Yerdaddy]

i don't think obama would receive a significant bump from black voters come the general election since an overwhelming number of black voters vote democratic anyways. a black republican would receive a much bigger boost (if he were to win a nomination).

I agree with this for the most part. Something like 80% of black voters vote Democrat since the Civil Rights movement realigned the parties' ideological appeal and the Republican party took a firmly pro-segregationist stance and Dixiecrats switched to the Republican party. But I think blacks aren't particularly happy with what the Democrats have done for them, while generally believing the Republicans have certainly done nothing for them or actually obstructed governmental addresses of their wants and needs.

So I think this means two things, based on my belief that blacks, justifiably, would only put any renewed faith in a representative if he were actually black:

1) A black Republican candidate would draw a large number of blacks over to the Republican party - at least to that candidate. This is true especially given the instant celebrity (token) status that black Republicans always get, (throughout the time that J.C. Watts was the only black Republican Congressman there were one to two dozen black Democrats, each of whom got about 1/100th the camera time that Watts did. We are also all familiar with most black Republican in high office since the civil rights days - Condolleeza, Powell, Clarance Thomas - while the same can be said of only a small fraction of the many black Democrats). A black Republican would automatically get celebrity cache and would draw both many blacks and some liberals just because of his skin color and the passes we give to black Republicans.

2) I think Obama will draw more blacks to the polls if he gets the nomination. It's called hope. It's thesame principle that drew religious conservatives to the polls for W - they were disappointed that Uncle Ronny and Daddy Bush didn't deliver them the abortion ban and curtailment of gay rights, but they thought that, as a born-again, Bush would finally deliver for them. Problem is, blacks still only make up 11% of the population so the increase in black voters won't make much of a difference except in the closest of races.

I personally believe that if he were to become the first black President he would be even less likely to address the issues that effect blacks the most - poor schools, healthcare for the uninsured, the largest proportion of incarceration during peacetime in human history, outrageous drug penalties like longer sentences for crack than powdered cocaine, residual de-facto segregation, etc - because he's going to be constantly accused of favoring blacks at the expense of whites regardless of what he does. The reality is that we live in an extremely poisoned political age and Democrats fear and bend to that pressure much more than Republicans do. A black Republican president - or even a white Democrat - would be in a much better political position to address the demands of the "black community" than Obama would be. Which is a shame because there are a lot more whites and other Americans effected by those issues than blacks, but blacks are simply more vocal about it because they've been left disproportionately effected by them.

[K.C.]

Well, looks to me like Johnny Mac is going to pull this out, but it's still a little close, although the networks are all suggesting Romney needed to do well in Orlando and he didn't, to win.

(41% reporting)
McCain - 35%
Romney - 32%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 3%

Giuliani actually looks like he'll finish fourth when Northwest Florida, which is expected to be favorable for Huckabee, reports.


On the non-binding Democrat side, Hillary won because she was the only won who campaigned there:

(41% reporting)
Clinton - 49%
Obama - 30%
Edwards - 15%
Gravel - 2% (He registered in the results!!!!!)

The most shocking thing about this is that almost as many people turned out in Florida to vote for the Democrats as the Republicans, and the Democratic Primary doesn't even count.

[DolaMight]

Well, looks to me like Johnny Mac is going to pull this out, but it's still a little close, although the networks are all suggesting Romney needed to do well in Orlando and he didn't, to win.

(41% reporting)
McCain - 35%
Romney - 32%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 3%

Giuliani actually looks like he'll finish fourth when Northwest Florida, which is expected to be favorable for Huckabee, reports. It does count for plenty of momentum goin into next tuesday.


On the non-binding Democrat side, Hillary won because she was the only won who campaigned there:

(41% reporting)
Clinton - 49%
Obama - 30%
Edwards - 15%

The most shocking thing about this is that almost as many people turned out in Florida to vote for the Democrats as the Republicans, and the Democratic Primary doesn't even count.

Here's a big Fuckin A Right! for Johnny Mac.

Take that drudge with your Clinton-McCain friends forever coverage for the last week. Try harder.


I have a feeling that most of those voters must not have heard the DNC registered this one null and void. It does count for plenty of momentum goin into next tuesday.

[K.C.]

Well, I guess there's one bright spot if you're a Rudy support...


He finally....FINALLY..........
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beat Ron Paul. Go Rudy!!
:thumbup:

[K.C.]

Rudy expected to drop out and endorse McCain as soon as tomorrow.



AP and Networks call it for Johnny Mac.

[DolaMight]

Rudy expected to drop out and endorse McCain as soon as tomorrow.



AP and Networks call it for Johnny Mac.

And Wolf just called it too. Finally CNN can feel sound calling a florida election.

I hate to sound like a home for McCain but it's over. I can only imagine the contrast of this election vs the last two, especially if it's Hilliary.

I can't imagine Rudy thinks he'll pick up the VP with the endorsement, same demo. Lieberman makes no sense, who's it gonna be?

[K.C.]

And Wolf just called it too. Finally CNN can feel sound calling a florida election.

I hate to sound like a home for McCain but it's over. I can only imagine the contrast of this election vs the last two, especially if it's Hilliary.

I can't imagine Rudy thinks he'll pick up the VP with the endorsement, same demo. Lieberman makes no sense, who's it gonna be?


I agree that McCain has it locked up. Romney's in an impossible position now. He's got to defend against McCain from the middle, and Huckabee really killed Romney on his right, tonight.

Huckabee will kill Romney's candidacy on Feb. 5th by taking enough hard right votes to allow McCain to ride the fiscal conservative/independent wave to a huge victory.

In return, my guess is that McCain will pick Huckabee a his VP. Huck will protect McCain's right and help rally the Christian Conservatives into a working coalition that might, just MIGHT, put the Republicans in position to win in November.





Rudy is dropping out...he's announced that he's endorsing World War III

[DolaMight]

I agree that McCain has it locked up. Romney's in an impossible position now. He's got to defend against McCain from the middle, and Huckabee really killed Romney on his right, tonight.

Huckabee will kill Romney's candidacy on Feb. 5th by taking enough hard right votes to allow McCain to ride the fiscal conservative/independent wave to a huge victory.

In return, my guess is that McCain will pick Huckabee a his VP. Huck will protect McCain's right and help rally the Christian Conservatives into a working coalition that might, just MIGHT, put the Republicans in position to win in November.





Rudy is dropping out...he's announced that he's endorsing World War III

Sure he promised a war but no new taxes. Who'd argue with that.


I can't see huckabee gettin the nod. They're just so different I can't see them getting along but I guess that doesn't matter if it means winning. There must be someone not running who he's considering.

[K.C.]

Sure he promised a war but no new taxes. Who'd argue with that.


I can't see huckabee gettin the nod. They're just so different I can't see them getting along but I guess that doesn't matter if it means winning. There must be someone not running who he's considering.

Gov. Crist of Florida....he's being credited with delivering it for McCain tonight...it'd make sense from a general election strategic standpoint.

[Bulldogcakes]

Rudy expected to drop out and endorse McCain as soon as tomorrow.



AP and Networks call it for Johnny Mac.

I have a dilemma. I was going to vote for Guiliani in the NY primary. Not because I think he'd be a good general election candidate but more out of appreciation for the way he turned NYC around.

Now I have to find a new candidiate. Ugh. Don't like the field. I guess its between Romney and McCain at this point, and I don't like either of them much.

[K.C.]

I have a dilemma. I was going to vote for Guiliani in the NY primary. Not because I think he'd be a good general election candidate but more out of appreciation for the way he turned NYC around.

Now I have to find a new candidiate. Ugh. Don't like the field. I guess its between Romney and McCain at this point, and I don't like either of them much.

Rudy will still be on the ballot...so you could still vote for him...or...

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/ronpaul.jpg





In all actuality, it seems to me like the establishment will probably rally around McCain and try and settle this as quickly as possible now.

Talk Radio and FOX will try to prop up Romney as the 'real' conservative candidate, but I don't see it working out too well, especially with Huckabee still running to Romney's right.


If Romney could get Huckabee out, he'd have a shot. With Huckabee in, he has no shot.