Which is better? (A pretty weird question)

[blakjeezis]

Having one opporunity with a 30% chance of success or two opportunities each with a 15% chance of success? Or are they ostensibly the same thing?

[PapaBear]

<p>I'm thinking two at 15% is better. The odds of a single success seem to be the same, but the eventual payoff has better potential, assuming that each of the potential payoffs are equal.</p><p>In other words... if you have a 30% chance to win a million bucks once, or two chances to win a million at 15% probability each...&nbsp; You could end up with 2 million bucks.</p>

[King Imp]

<p>I would choose the&nbsp;two at 15%. 30% is not high enough to risk only one chance at. </p><p>Now, if it were two at 25% and one at 50%, that would be another story. </p>

[soupcan]

95% chance of winning .....i'll hit that 5% everytime. It's a gift<br />

[legroommusic]

<p>when dealing with chance, I&nbsp;think the 15% is better. But with some thing like extra meat on a sandwich, I don't know what's better. Like on a corn beef sandwich, I'd have to see what 100% is first. if it's like something from the carnegie deli or katz's deli, then I'd go for the 15%. 100% of meat from one of those places is just too much. I'd top it off at 15% extra.</p><p><img src="http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9ibyGaPhPJE0FUByCKjzbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTA4NDgyNWN 0BHNlYwNwcm9m/SIG=12kfq8stp/EXP=1156830735/**http%3a//newyorkmetro.com/listings/restaurant/maincarnegiedeli.jpg" border="0" /></p><p>see? look how ridiculous that is? 30%&nbsp; more? That's just crazy.(big joke) That's just not kosher.</p>

<span class=post_edited>This message was edited by legroommusic on 8-28-06 @ 1:53 AM</span>

[Alice S. Fuzzybutt]

<p>I'd go with 30%. Only because I don't want to be blamed for 85%. Twice. Which I have being a Production Editor and it effected my PERMANENT RECORD and my raise. </p><p>Hence, I freelance and I'm poorer. &nbsp;</p>

[Sheeplovr]

where is your math to get 15% and 30% if itd that far below 50% is there anything you can do to chose something else?<br />

[OGC]

<strong>legroommusic</strong> wrote:<br /><p>when dealing with chance, I&nbsp;think the 15% is better. But with some thing like extra meat on a sandwich, I don't know what's better. Like on a corn beef sandwich, I'd have to see what 100% is first. if it's like something from the carnegie deli or katz's deli, then I'd go for the 15%. 100% of meat from one of those places is just too much. I'd top it off at 15% extra.</p><p><img src="http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9ibyGaPhPJE0FUByCKjzbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTA4NDgyNWN 0BHNlYwNwcm9m/SIG=12kfq8stp/EXP=1156830735/**http%3a//newyorkmetro.com/listings/restaurant/maincarnegiedeli.jpg" border="0" /></p><p>see? look how ridiculous that is? 30%&nbsp; more? That's just crazy.(big joke) That's just not kosher.</p><span class="post_edited">This message was edited by legroommusic on 8-28-06 @ 1:53 AM</span> <p><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="3">Finally someone&nbsp;brings this discussion around to&nbsp;something I can understand.</font></p>

[Don Stugots]

i would work like hell at the two 15% chances.&nbsp; never put all your stolen ladies underwear in one box.&nbsp;

[CruelCircus]

<p>Statistically, they are exactly the same.</p>

[feralBoy]

<p>Can you be slightly more specific?&nbsp; If you pick the two chances at 15% can you win twice?&nbsp; Or is it something that if you win the first time, then you don't need to win again?</p><p>You really have to look at expectation, and standard deviation.&nbsp; But for instance.&nbsp; If the prize was $100, and you can only win it once.</p><p>If you chose the first option, you have a 30% chance of winning 100 bucks.&nbsp; Expectation is $30</p><p>If you choose the second option, the way you would figure it out is like this.</p><p>You have a 15% chance to initially win $100.&nbsp; If that happens, then, everything stops.&nbsp; You win, game over.&nbsp; If you lose, you have another roll.&nbsp; </p><p>So, 85% of the time, you have a 15% chance of winning $100.&nbsp; And 85% of the time, you have an 85% chance of winning $0.</p><p>So, .85 x .15 = 12.75</p><p>and .85 x .85 = 72.25</p><p>So, you have 27.75% chance of winning $100.&nbsp; with an expectation of $27.75.&nbsp; Lower than the first option.&nbsp; So, it would be better to choose option 1.</p><p>It's early and my reasoning may be wrong, but I think it's ok.</p>

[blakjeezis]

Let's say it's blue and red beads in a jar. You need to pull one, just one, red bead. You can choose to have one shot at the jar where 30 out of 100 beads are red, or two shots at the jar where 15 out of 100 beads are red. Obviously, if you pull a blue bead in your first attempt at the second jar, it goes back in for the second attempt to maintain the ratio of blue to red.

[cupcakelove]

I would go with the first one.&nbsp; I know that, statistically, they are not the same.&nbsp; A 15% chance is still a 15% chance, no matter how many times you take it, the odds don't change.<br />

[terry1979]

There is no question about it, 30% chance one time is way better than 15% twice.&nbsp; Even with the red and blue bead scenario.&nbsp; If you have 15 red and 85 blue and you go the first time and you get a blue and then you get to go again from the same bowl and there is one less blue bead now, so your chances are now 15 out of 99 which is 15.15151515...%.&nbsp; Both drawings are independent of one another and do not effect eachothers' outcomes.&nbsp; 30% is better no matter how you look at it.

[feralBoy]

<strong>blakjeezis</strong> wrote:<br />Let's say it's blue and red beads in a jar. You need to pull one, just one, red bead. You can choose to have one shot at the jar where 30 out of 100 beads are red, or two shots at the jar where 15 out of 100 beads are red. Obviously, if you pull a blue bead in your first attempt at the second jar, it goes back in for the second attempt to maintain the ratio of blue to red. <p>If the situation was like that, with a replacement, than the one shot at 30% is the better option.</p><p>1 shot at 30 out of a 100, you have 30% chance of winning</p><p>2 shots at 15 out of a 100, you have 27.75% chance of winning.&nbsp; Same rational as my math above.</p><p>15/100 + .85(15/100) = 27.75/100 or 27.75%</p>

<span class=post_edited>This message was edited by feralBoy on 8-28-06 @ 11:09 AM</span>

[Gaia]

<p>My head hurts.</p><p>Can I have a # 2 with extra Pickles?</p>

[blakjeezis]

So I've been giving this some more thought. Since your goal is to grab only one red bead, statistically, as someone up top said, they are equivalent. Lookit

Option 1: 100 beads, 30 of which are red. One shot. You have a 30% chance of getting it.

Option 2: 100 beads, 15 of which are red. Two shots. OR 200 beads, 30 of which are red, but you can grab two beads instead of just one, effectively doubling your chances of getting a red one. So you cut your chances in half, but because you grab 2 beads, you double them back to the original probability.



Now that I wrote that all out, I'm still not sure.

[JustJon]

<p>Option 1) 30% chance of winning</p><p>Option 2) Less than 30% of winning (not bothing to do the math, but the 27% is prolly correct), hence, Option 1 has the better odds of winning.&nbsp;</p>

[SinA]

take option 2 and use a condom

[feralBoy]

<strong>blakjeezis</strong> wrote:<br />So I've been giving this some more thought. Since your goal is to grab only one red bead, statistically, as someone up top said, they are equivalent. Lookit Option 1: 100 beads, 30 of which are red. One shot. You have a 30% chance of getting it. Option 2: 100 beads, 15 of which are red. Two shots. OR 200 beads, 30 of which are red, but you can grab two beads instead of just one, effectively doubling your chances of getting a red one. So you cut your chances in half, but because you grab 2 beads, you double them back to the original probability. Now that I wrote that all out, I'm still not sure. <p>Option 2 with 200 beads is:</p><p>30/200 + 170/200*30/199 = @27.8%</p><p>you can figure out an alternate way, of thinking of it like that chances of you getting atleast 1 red bead.&nbsp; so you have three situation.&nbsp; both beads are read, first bead is red, last bead is red.&nbsp; The chances of that are:</p><p>30/200 * 29/199 + 30/300 * 170/199 + 170/200 * 30/199 = @27.8</p>

[lleeder]

What if pain was involved, theres either a one 30 percent chance your finger will be ripped off or or two 15 percent chances that it will if you fail. Would you rather put that finger in the jar once and get it over with or twice with less of a risk?

[SatCam]

<strong>blakjeezis</strong> wrote:<br>Let's say it's blue and red beads in a jar. You need to pull one, just one, red bead. You can choose to have one shot at the jar where 30 out of 100 beads are red, or two shots at the jar where 15 out of 100 beads are red. Obviously, if you pull a blue bead in your first attempt at the second jar, it goes back in for the second attempt to maintain the ratio of blue to red. <p></p>

Is this a jar of used anal beads? I'd keep my hand out of that

[Bulldogcakes]

<p>&nbsp;</p><strong>blakjeezis</strong> wrote:<br />Having one opporunity with a 30% chance of success or two opportunities each with a 15% chance of success? Or are they ostensibly the same thing?<p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>You dont get out much, do you?&nbsp;</p><blockquote /><p>&nbsp;</p>

[Bulldogcakes]

<p>Here's a better question</p><p>What would you rather have, a drop dead gorgeous girlfriend who stinks in bed, or an average looking girl who can suck a golf ball through a garden hose?&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><br /></p>

[spoon]

<p>Come up with something original just fucking once BDC.&nbsp;</p><p>And option one is the better selection as described above.&nbsp; No question about it.</p>

[mikeyboy]

<p>Think of it this way - </p><p>Would you rather have one chance at 95% success or 95 chances at 1% success?</p>

[feralBoy]

<strong>mikeyboy</strong> wrote:<br /><p>Think of it this way - </p><p>Would you rather have one chance at 95% success or 95 chances at 1% success?</p><p>Or better yet.&nbsp; one chance at 100% or 10 chances at 10%.&nbsp; </p>

[FreshJ]

Personally I would like the 30% chance cause you do have the better odds to start with if you go the other way you only have 15% chance. It is always a 15% chance no matter how many times you pull.
This is the same as playing multiple lottery tickets each ticket has the same chance. You do not have a greater chance by buying more enless you would cover at least half of the number combinations.

[Alice S. Fuzzybutt]

<p>Ever work in publishing? It's like arguing with a girlfriend. All circular logic. </p><p>ALL THE TIME.&nbsp;</p>