7 million people could die of the flu this year...

[TheMojoPin]

Get me a bubble to live in!

BANGKOK, Thailand -- The World Health Organization has issued a dramatic warning that bird flu will trigger an international pandemic that could kill up to seven million people. (http://www.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/11/25/birdflu.warning/index.html)

Yeah, this is a little scary.

I'd wish I had gotten my flu shot this year...BUT IT'S USELESS!!!

RUN!!!

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1979 << I love my drug buddy... >> "You can tell some lies about the good times we've had, but I've kissed your mother twice...and now I'm working on your dad..."

[Mike Teacher]

RUN!!!


What they 'should' say is that 7 million people could die Every year. Mojo pulls a story that sits quietly each year, but is quite possibly the Big One that will get us.

Just in the US, just this century, from Google:

There were three pandemics in the 20th century. All of them spread worldwide within 1 year of being detected. They are:

 1918-19, "Spanish flu," [A (H1N1)], caused the highest number of known flu deaths: more than 500,000 people died in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.

 1957-58, "Asian flu," [A (H2N2)], caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.

 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu," [A (H3N2)], caused approximately 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Type A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.

Recommended Reading: Laurie Garrett: The Coming Plague (http://www.lauriegarrett.com/index_coming.html)

And you know its good when the CIA is in the Web address: NIC/CIA Report on Infectious Disease (http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/nie/report/nie99-17d.html)

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This message was edited by Mike Teacher on 11-27-04 @ 9:11 AM

[Mike Teacher]

More Good News; The Past is Prolouge:

Year Microbe Type Disease

1973 Rotavirus Virus Infantile diarrhea
1977 Ebola virus Virus Acute hemorrhagic fever
1977 Legionella pneumophila Bacterium Legionnaires' disease
1980 Human T-lymphotrophic
virus I (HTLV 1) Virus T-cell lymphoma/leukemia
1981 Toxin-producing
Staphylococcus aureus Bacterium Toxic shock syndrome
1982 Escherichia coli O157:H7 Bacterium Hemorrhagic colitis; hemolytic uremic syndrome
1982 Borrelia burgdorferi Bacterium Lyme disease
1983 Human Immunodeficiency
Virus (HIV) Virus Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)
1983 Helicobacter pylori Bacterium Peptic ulcer disease
1989 Hepatitis C Virus Parentally transmitted non-A, non-B liver infection
1992 Vibrio cholerae O139 Bacterium New strain associated with epidemic cholera
1993 Hantavirus Virus Adult respiratory distress syndrome


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[A.J.]

On the bright side, what didn't kill billions of people made them stronger.

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Red Sox Nation

[ChickenHawk]

I blame Clinton...



...and blacks.

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[TheMojoPin]

So, this ISN'T possibly a big deal?

Look, I'm fully aware that millions people die of "flu-like" awfulness each year.

Is this WHO announcement just alarmist bullshit? Or is the media framing it that way to capitalize on the hooplah over the lack of flu shots, to scare us into watching like they always do?

The influenza pandemic could occur anywhere from next week to the coming years, WHO said.

"There is no doubt there will be another pandemic," Klaus Stohr of the WHO Global Influenza Program said on the sidelines of a regional bird flu meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.

"Even with the best case scenario, the most optimistic scenario, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency with estimates which will put the number of deaths in the range of two and seven million," he said.

"The number of people affected will go beyond billions because between 25 percent and 30 percent will fall ill."

Pandemics occur when a completely new flu strain emerges for which humans have no immunity.

With a human vaccine to the bird flu virus not expected until March 2005 at the earliest, urgency is being placed on containment.

Yeah, it's saying it could be years until this happens, but the WHO is basically saying it WILL happen...maybe this year, maybe in a few years. Whether it's in a few weeks or a couple years down the line, the world's health experts saying it WILL happen freaks me the fuck out! Between two and seven million dead! On TOP of those that "usually" die! Right?

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1979 << I love my drug buddy... >> "You can tell some lies about the good times we've had, but I've kissed your mother twice...and now I'm working on your dad..."

[FUNKMAN]

maybe, but it would probably be a fluke


okay, even i just about got that one



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[HBox]

Fuck these scientists. I'm still waiting for Mount Saint Helens to blow. ANY DAY NOW!

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[canofsoup15]

I think that 2 to 7 million is quite a leap. When the numbers of speculation are that large, it's hard to believe the source or figure they're chucking darts at a board.

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[TheMojoPin]

Two million still sucks.

Especially since one of the previous pandemics Mike talked about killed a lot of "young healthy adults."

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1979 << I love my drug buddy... >> "You can tell some lies about the good times we've had, but I've kissed your mother twice...and now I'm working on your dad..."

This message was edited by TheMojoPin on 11-28-04 @ 10:47 PM

[canofsoup15]

But then again it depends on where it hits. If it hits in America it'll be pretty bad, probably more around the 2 million mark, which sucks. But if it hits Africa or South America, where their pharmaceuticals are fucked and 2/3rds of the population already has AIDS, it would be fucking terrible.

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[FUNKMAN]

Especially since one of the previous pandemics Mike talked about killed a lot of "young healthy adults."


thank god i'm old and feel like shit...

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[HBox]

If this happens, its not going to happen in one country, it will be worldwide. And that 2 to 7 million figure is worldwide. Obviously the deaths will be more widespread in third world countries, but they are raising the alarm because if it does happen it will be a totally new virus with no vaccine, and will pose a danger to healthy people. here's something from the CDC. (http://www.dhhs.gov/nvpo/pandemicplan/)

An influenza pandemic is a global outbreak of influenza and occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges among people, spreads, and causes disease worldwide. Past influenza pandemics have led to high levels of illness, death, social disruption and economic loss.

There were three pandemics in the 20th century. All of them spread worldwide within 1 year of being detected. They are:

* 1918-19, "Spanish flu," [A (H1N1)], caused the highest number of known flu deaths: more than 500,000 people died in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.
* 1957-58, "Asian flu," [A (H2N2)], caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.
* 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu," [A (H3N2)], caused approximately 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Type A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.

Both the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemic viruses were a result of the reassortment of a human virus with an avian influenza virus. The origin of the 1918 pandemic virus is not clear.

Once a new pandemic influenza virus emerges and spreads, it typically becomes established among people and circulates for many years. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization conduct extensive surveillance programs to monitor the occurrence of influenza activity worldwide, including the emergence of potential pandemic strains of influenza virus.

Vaccine supply during a pandemic

Initially, when a pandemic influenza strain first infects people in the U.S., there will likely be no or very limited amounts of vaccine available. This period could last for up to six months depending on when the pandemic strain is detected and how rapidly it spreads to the U.S. and on how rapidly vaccine development and production proceed. Previous 20th century pandemics began in the U.S. within weeks of the initial disease outbreak and/or virus identification. In the absence of vaccine, primary response strategies include interventions to slow the spread of infection, antiviral therapy and prophylaxis, and quality medical care. After vaccine becomes available, for some period, vaccine availability will be far less than national demand, requiring prioritized usage of vaccine to optimally decrease morbidity and mortality. As vaccine production increases and with some of the population already having been vaccinated in the initial targeted program, supply will become adequate to meet demand. This may lead to changes in strategies for vaccine distribution and administration because there may no longer be a need to limit vaccine only to those in designated priority groups. Tracking vaccine production, delivery, and use will be important to guide appropriate vaccination strategies and use.

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[CaptClown]

This just in... the Sun will go nova in a few billion years. If you don't have sevety gazillion sunblock your ass is toast.

Imagine that a flu pandemic coming out of Asia. Who would have ever thought it would orginiate from there?

Director of the C.Y.A. Society.
Field Marshal of the K.I.S.S. Army
Poison Clan rocks the world

This message was edited by CaptClown on 11-28-04 @ 11:46 PM

[Mike Teacher]

I think that 2 to 7 million is quite a leap.


Yes it is. Every year however, 20,000-40,000 die of this in the USA. Last year, year before, sometimes less, sometimes, rarely i hope, a lot more. And were only 6% of the world population.

Yes it all looks like Chicken Little saying the sky is falling. And looking back through history, we see that the odds are this Will Happen, not an If, but simply a When.

'Will Happen' is seen my many as meaning in their lifetime. Maybe not, but as for the Great Dyings? Mass extinctions? The earth unambiguously shows off her scars, proudly wears them. We had dyings where is wasnt a high percentage of humans killed, but a high percentage of Every Living Thing.

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[BooBooKittyFuck]

Why is this such a big deal? I refuse to get the flu vaccine and I do not get sick. Take zinc every day and you will barely get sick. The one time I got the stupid flu shot I was sick for two weeks.

I think people should care more about their own health and treat things accordingly than worry what a multi- billion dollar industry thinks they should do. People are in general lazy and will take anything their doctor says without a second thought. That is in itself a scary thought.

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Thx PanterA for the cool Pic

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[jocefus]

all the more reason to toke up man....

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Big ups to amy, aggie, satcam,adf fluff and can of soup for the sigs..

hey my man, what it look like

[TheMojoPin]

Yes it all looks like Chicken Little saying the sky is falling. And looking back through history, we see that the odds are this Will Happen, not an If, but simply a When.

But that's the point of this announcement. It's NOT just a case of stating the obvious, ie - "this will happen at some point in the future." They're saying it could happen a couple years down the line...but more importantly, it could happen as early as THIS season, within a matter of weeks. Either way, they're saying that the odds are this next pandemic will hit in the near future...within the next few years...which is a HUGE difference than just tossing out, "oh, it'll happen sometime down the line." It's a warning, because realtime factors are showing it to be potentially be happening NOW. It's NOT just stating the obvious.

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1979 << I love my drug buddy... >> "You can tell some lies about the good times we've had, but I've kissed your mother twice...and now I'm working on your dad..."

This message was edited by TheMojoPin on 11-29-04 @ 10:43 AM

[mothershucker]

Thin the heard! To many people on this planet now.

I shucked it, and I shucked it, and I shucked it, i'm quite the mother shucker

[Bulldogcakes]

The WHO (World Health Org, Not the Rock band)
can say with certainty that a new Flu will attack this year
Because they just finished genetically engineering a new virus in their lab
And released it on an unsuspecting woman who works at your local grocery store, and has been sneezing all over the produce.
Oh, by the way she travels by subway 10-15 times a day.

[Bulldogcakes]

Very few people die of the Flu in developed countries
Where medicine is good and it gets nipped in the bud before it spreads too much. 2-7 million is alot, but in a world of 5 billion its probably between 1 in 1000/1 in 2000. You have a much greater risk of getting in a car accident, yet people aren't feaking out about that, despite the fact it's MORE likely to happen to you. People overeact to any new risks. Your gonna die of something, so do your best to pop that hottie you've had your eye on. And stop worrying so much. Life's too short and too unpredictable.

"Cancer may defeat my body, but it can't, and it won't conquer my spirit" -Coach Jim Valvano

[Mike Teacher]

Very few people die of the Flu in developed countries


20,000-40,000 a year in the USA. At 36,500 Thats 100 men, women, children, elderly. Every Day.

Multiply above times 2-3 for people who suffer real, permanent system damage from fighting it off, taking years off their lives...
Whether thats 'very few' is up to interpreatation.

If we were losing that many in, say, the airline industry, I'd call it more then very few.

However, that almost exactly deaths by auto, and we let that slide to. 100 a day dead.

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This message was edited by Mike Teacher on 11-29-04 @ 11:58 PM

[Bulldogcakes]

Very few people die of the Flu in developed countries
[/quote]
20,000-40,000 a year in the USA.

_____________________________________________


Are those CDC #s? they seem too rough to be, and I remember it being much lower.
Also, sometimes those #s are misleading. People can already have a serious condition which is the real problem, but cause of death is something else. For example someone has cancer, but the cause of death is pnuemonia (hope I spelled that one) There's a stat going around about how Women die of heart attacks more than Men do. Very misleading. Men die of heart attacks when they are otherwise healthy in their 40's and 50's. Women die of heart attacks when they're 80 in a hospital bed with 50 things wrong with them. When it comes to medical stats, as with alot of stories, the headlines can be misleading.

This message was edited by Bulldogcakes on 11-30-04 @ 7:27 AM

[GodsFavoriteMan]

What we need is Troy Aikman to come up with a better way of providing these stats.

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[Bulldogcakes]

I hate Boomer Esiason with a purple passion. How he gets one job is beyond me, and he has a TV show, radio show, and calls games. Arrogant prick. Then he parades his sick kid around to make himself look human. What a scumbag. Sorry to get off topic. I'll stop ranting now.

This message was edited by Bulldogcakes on 11-30-04 @ 7:32 AM

[Mike Teacher]

Are those CDC #s? they seem too rough to be, and I remember it being much lower.



Yes, they are from the CDC, as is this:

In a recent study of influenza epidemics, approximately 19,000 influenza-associated pulmonary and circulatory deaths per influenza season occurred during 1976-1990, compared with approximately 36,000 deaths during 1990-1999.

Taken from Here (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/index.htm)
=



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This message was edited by Mike Teacher on 11-30-04 @ 8:42 AM

[Bulldogcakes]

I really should know better than to fuck with you, Big Mike
UNCLE!

[HBox]

Then he parades his sick kid around to make himself look human. What a scumbag.

You've really picked a sore subject for me, and since you are obviously talking out of your ass I feel no need to soften my language: Fuck you. You have no idea what you are talking about. He and his foundation have done more for a lot of sick people than most people will ever dream of. So kindly shut your goddamn mouth.

Sorry to everyone else who had to read that.

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[Mike Teacher]

I really should know better than to fuck with you, Big Mike


Oh please. One motto for Teachers: Often Wrong, but Never in Doubt.

I disagree. I doubt everything.

And the numbers can 'mislead' in that again, are some gonna die this year anyway and the flu is the last straw? I guess that counts, or maybe theres some under-reporting so it balances out.

I'll say this; trust no numbers. Theyre always wrong. Always. Even if they're right, assume theu are wrong, and do it again. The worst thing that can happen in a science experiment is to have the numbers come out Exactly as you predicted. That usually means you're fudging something somewhere; theres a lot of wishing thinking in this stuff. The best experiments are blind, or double blind, the person who figures the results has No idea what the number 'should' be.

I can show you a graph showing the explosive growth in Aids funding under Reagen. I can show you a graph showing he utterly ignored the disease. The graph is the same graph; the data interpretation will be the only difference.

The statistics of drug trials? Holy shit, thats a book, not a thread.

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This message was edited by Mike Teacher on 11-30-04 @ 10:50 PM

[Bulldogcakes]

One thing people fall for all the time is politically motivated science. On the Right and Left. Depending on what result you want to come from a study, you can start from a certain place and make sure you end up where you want to. While its hard to seperate people from thier biases, starting with a pre-concieved world view will lead to some very bad science (or CIA intelligence). One great example of this is Global Warming. While there's no doubt it's occuring, whats causing it is very disputed. Yet people from the right and left seize upon the weakest shreds to bolster their case, which when looked at critically, doesn't add up to much. Temperature records are very poor when you go back further than few hundred years. Ice core samples give localized, rough accounts of temperatures over long periods of time. We're looking at a upward trend of the past few decades. Which in geological time is an eyeblink. The data we have now would mean more to me if we had an accurate context to put it in, but we dont. Though, maybe we do. NASA has been tracking surface temps of Mars since their 1st trips in the 70s. And they announced last year that they find temps on Mars rising at a similar rate to ours, which for them was good news because they want to settle Mars at some point. No SUV's on Mars. Occam's razor suggests to look at the fewest, most obvious sources for answers. Think our main source of heat, THE SUN might have something to do with global warming?

This message was edited by Bulldogcakes on 12-2-04 @ 12:29 AM

[Meatball]

there are 6.5 Billion people on earth. If 7 Million die that is .001 % or 1 in a 1000. Would you even notice 1 man missing in a room of a 1000??

See how the worlds population will increase here (http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop)

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"Thats a spicy meatball"

[FMJeff]

7 million isn't that much when you think about it in the global context...that's like the population of new jersey...


and you know my feelings on new jersey (http://www.ronfez.net/messageboard/viewmessages.cfm/Forum/87/Topic/42203/page/LI_terror_threat_on_11_26__.htm)

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<br>
It made my heart sing.

[Bulldogcakes]

And who would ever miss New Jersey?
(Just kidding)