Question of Evolution for TooCute.

[blakjeezis]

As always, this is open for anyone to answer, but since TooCute is our resident expert on evolution and general genetic know-it-all, I'll pose it to her.
Recently I was watching a show on the Discovery Channel, "The Future is Wild" or something like that it was called. The idea of the show was to illustrate what life on Earth would be like 100 or 200 million years from now. A fun concept, with all manner of wacky beasts abounding.

Here's my problem. This is simplified definition of evolution, I'm sure hampered by my limited understanding, but here we go. Evolution is caused by random mutations on a genetic level. If the traits caused by these random mutations aid the animal in surviving more than others of its species, then that trait is passed on to subsequent generations and so on and so forth until only the animals that have this evolved trait are left. If the trait is of no use, or a hindrance to the species' survival, then it dies out.

Fairly simple, correct? Here's the question. If evolution is simply the spontaneous mutation of certain genes, how then can scientists predict what animals of 200 million years from are going to be like. I assume that they can look at the geological record and make predictions about what the Earth will be like, and assume that animals will evolve traits that best fit that environment. But how can that be done with any surety? I mean I'm watching this show and they have shiny silver spiders farming the world's last mammal like robots in The Matrix, fish flying over the desert and crazy ass sharks with running lights. What the dilly, yo?

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This message was edited by blakjeezis on 5-20-03 @ 7:35 PM

[Def Dave in SC]

It started with TLC doing less and less actual science programming, until it has almost none now. Discovery seems to be going the same way, and this show sounds like some pseudo science thing to attract viewers.

But thats just my rambling ill-formed opinion. Also, does this really belong here, it might get moved to ask the Horde King.

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[Rancor6666]

isaw this special 2 jezis. it really makes no scientific sence. just untestable theories that the discovery channel used CG to animate. Basically they started with teh premise that humans will abandon the earth after fuking it up completely. from our new planet we will send satalites to see whats going on the planet after we left.
aparently the only thing they could think of was that Squid will evolve and conquore the earth. a squid is an invertibrate with an arguably high intelignce. but some how they thing in 400 million years they will crarlw out the water, grow lungs, and grow to the size of dinosaurs. they will soem how remain boneless, and for no reason be the dominant species on the planet.
the other shit is spiders will go from solitary preditors that live their entire lives independant of their species from birth to huge social colonys(like ants, bees) of millions in the mountains and trap seed to feed a farm of dumb mouse sized mamels. giving aracknads that much inteligence is seriousely pushing the boundries of retarded. Also 1 speciles of water spiders will for a symbyotic relationship with a huge "man of war" type jelly fish. the spiders protect the jelly fish and it feeds them.
there are many more shit head storys they came up with and in my opinoin thats all they are. stroys. im sure that there is no scientific evidence to suport any of these crazy theories that cant possibly be tested or validated in anyway shape or form. they didnt even explain anytheories behind the animals they showed. they only said in 200 milloin this shit happens in 300 this shit. no eivdence+no theory+no reasoning= bullshit

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[Heavy]

I agree

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[schmega]

that was a godawful program. the only species that'll overtake us is one with a bigger brain. that, or some cataclysmic event that'll bring life on earth back to square 1, where only amoebas and Patrick Ewing will walk the earth.

but should we honestly care what happens 200 million years from now? go plan for your retirement instead. seriously, do it now. you'll live comfortably in your golden years and you'll leave something for your children and grandchildren.

[TooCute]

I didn't see the show. I wanted to and I missed it. I remember seeing something that looked like a giant nautilus crawling across the land in the commercial though...

You're aboslutely correct about the randomness of evolution and its unpredictability in a general sense.

So yeah they totally can't predict. It's going to be random. But by the same token you can be pretty certain of certain trends, so if you can make predictions about what the climate of the earth will be, you can make guesses about the sorts of things that animals will need to evolve to cope with. So if you can predict, for example, that the earth's climate is going to be 5 degrees warmer on average, you can figure out how that is going to affect the environment (eg, will melting ice caps raise sea level, decrease seasonal fluctuations in temperature, etc etc) and say maybe, well animals are going to have to evolve to deal with 'x'. You don't know necessarily HOW animals will evolve to cope with 'x' - for example, you might say animals living in the cold have to deal with the cold. One way to deal with it is to have fur. Another is to have blubber. Another is to have anti-freeze blood (all exist in the real world). I guess this is where the creators of the show had fun.

If you can make guesses about the sorts of things animals will have to evolve to deal with in the future, you can also make predictions about which sorts of animals are most likely to be able to adapt to these situations best. If someday within the span of a century or two all bamboo goes extinct because of a climate change, you can be pretty certain that pandas are going to go extinct. But if due to climate change North America suddenly becomes much more tropical or much more temperate, you can say, okay, probably mountain lions will not go extinct, because they're super adaptable. Now how are they going to evolve from there to better deal with their new environment?

And if certain animals do go extinct, which animals are likely to take their place? I guess they chose to have the cephalapods invading land because molluscs in general are an extraordinarily successful phylum, living essentially everywhere (well I don't know about arctic snails but who knows). Cephalopods are the most intelligent molluscans, and who knows, I mean octupi often hang out on dry land as is. Why not?

So uhhh I guess basically most of the shit was made up, but I'm guessing it had at least SOME sort of legitimate scientific thought going into it. I gotta see that show.

Oh and btw, I never took genetics in college and I got a C in evolutionary biology freshman year in college.

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[PanterA]

Do you think that if we build houses that are bigger by like 5 ft...and everything in the house is 5ft taller. Do you think Humans would eventually evolve to be taller...or better yet, learn the ability to stretch like Mr.Fantastic?

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[Death Metal Moe]

Evotution is gay. If we can't fly, what good is it?

The Earth is only 5000 years old anyway! Read you Bible!

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This message was edited by Death_Metal Moe on 5-21-03 @ 1:29 AM

[guttersnipe]

I remember back in the late 70s or early 80s seeing
something on PBS by Carl Sagan, was it Cosmos? In
one of the 10 parts, it discussed evolution, and it
showed a time-lapse animation of how we developed
from amoebas to modern man. Then it went on to
speculate, with the same kind of time-lapse, how
humans might evolve over the next one or two million
years (if we don't annihilate ourselves n the meantime).
It showed how we will probably lose our pinkies over
time, perhaps the rest of our body hair. At the end of
the animation, it was really creepy. We looked exactly
like the "greys."

That was when I developed my theory (that I later
found out was not just my theory) that if we do
have "visitors" in UFOs, that it's really us coming back
to see what we were like in the past. Future
archeologists of a sort, if you will.

I've heard it said that time travel is more likely than
space travel to distant planets anyway. Food for
thought.

~guttersnipe



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This message was edited by guttersnipe on 5-21-03 @ 2:55 AM

[The Chairman]

Smart chicks give me wood.

The Good News:

I get to use it on her...cause some random mutations millions of years ago eventually resulted in me having a 9 inch cock and balls the size of clementines....

Well I think that's from mutations?

I didn't take Evolutionary Bio. in college. But I got an A in Genetics. It's genetics...yeah genetics....



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[TooCute]

I'm still convinced that humans aren't evolving physically.


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[schmega]

I'm still convinced that humans aren't evolving physically

what would make anyone think otherwise?

i do believe we're reaching our physical limits, though.

[PanterA]

OK, but is there anything humans can do over millions of years that can effect the way an animal evolves?

Lets say we genetically change trees to be only 3 feet tall....will giraffe's necks get shorter?

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[A.J.]

I'm still convinced that humans aren't evolving physically.

Not even in terms of height and longevity?

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[Mike Teacher]

Fairly simple, correct? Here's the question. If evolution is simply the spontaneous mutation of certain genes, how then can scientists predict what animals of 200 million years from are going to be like. I assume that they can look at the geological record and make predictions about what the Earth will be like, and assume that animals will evolve traits that best fit that environment. But how can that be done with any surety?


Science Can't.

It's called Contingency by Stephen Jay Gould [gone, sadly]. If we rewound the tape of life, say from 65 million years ago, when the last huge extinction came, The Creataceous/Tertiary Event, would we have evolved?

Maybe, I say. Just Maybe. But only Just.

Mike

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[TooCute]

Lets say we genetically change trees to be only 3 feet tall....will giraffe's necks get shorter?


Make all trees three feet tall?

I think we're going to have bigger problems than just worrying about giraffes' necks.

And it would depend on how quickly it happened and whether it was slow enough for giraffes to evolve in response.

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[TooCute]

Not even in terms of height and longevity?


No. But there was another thread on human evolution somewhere in the past few months. My search function doens't seem to be working but you're welcome to go and look for it.

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[TooCute]

Ehh so a little reasearch would have answered the question. I went to the animal planet website and they've got a few pages on this program. They basically checked figured out what the earth would physically look like in the future and then figured out how animals might evolve in response (what I said, right? yay!)

Neat to see Steve Palumbi had such a large part in this program. He's a marine biologist at Stanford (until recently at Harvard) and a totally cool guy who does totally cool research. Actually I just drove him to Kennedy the last time he visited NY a couple of months ago :)

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[East Side Dave]

Have you ever seen a giraffe? Jesus, those fuckers are tall! They gotta be *thinking*, I'd say they gotta be at least five' eight'' !!! ...And did ya see those apostrophes after the numbers?! I think those little fuckers represent something !!!

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[JRBobDobbs]

i always figured that human beings cant really evolve much farther than we have. not if we're all going to die in a few hundred years anyway. not to sound like a hippie or anything, but human beings only have another 200-300 years left on this planet. and i think i'm being generous with that estimate. MESSAGEBOARD PSYCHIC PREDICTION: the population of the earth will continue to double roughly every 32 years as it has since the birth of agriculture. soon the population will be too great in size for the ammount of food we can produce, war and famine, disease and pestulence will run rampant. human kind will probably just wipe itself out, by rendering the planet uninhabitable. this is all fine with me...cause that'll be long after we're all dead anyway.

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[Rancor6666]

lets face it. the only believable human evolution theory is the XMen comic made by stan lee. our DNA unlocks the secret to our hidden powers. in 1000 years or so well start to see blue people and breatrh underwater and shit

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[Bill From Yorktown]

actually I agree that we're probably not evolving much anymore - short circuiting evolution by all the advances in medical science - keeping certain individuals alive that might have had a shortened life expectancy and all. Just because we're living longer doesnt mean we're evolving to live longer - we're just living up to our potential. This incidentally is probably why things like cancer and alzheimers are on the rise - we live long enough for these other things to kick in that probably wouldnt hit too many 12 year olds (on average)


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[SRFSTARVD]

I actually work for Discovery channel, or should I saw worked since I am moving,
It was all about money. They make shit up. Actually no they dont. I think it was just a big what if thing though. Wasnt it?

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